They are lightyears behind. 20 years if not more. These chip machines is work of many decates of iterative work. You cannot simply step in and produce similar tech.

You don’t need to actually replace them with equal alternatives, just enough so the digital economy doesn’t implode. Even 2015 is probably a target year in terms of performance that doesn’t destroy the entire electronics industry.

If they are "lightyears behind", and everyone on HN thinks that China will invade Taiwan in order to get chips, then why the ** is the US trying to cripple China's domestic semiconductor industry?!? Isn't this a self-fulfulling prophecy? If HNers are so concerned about Taiwan's peace and independence then why aren't HNers protesting more against the US' effort to cripple China's semiconductor industry so that China has no incentive to invade Taiwan for chips?

These questions are only half rhetorical. I really want to hear what people have to say about this.

> and everyone on HN thinks that China will invade Taiwan in order to get chips

Most everyone things China will invade Taiwan because they want to own the land. It was once part of "china" but now is a (politically unrecognized) separate nation.

Everyone thinks that the only reason not to invade is that warfare will surely destroy all semiconductor manufacturing on the island.

The US wants to cripple the Chinese semiconductor industry to ensure that Taiwan can't be invaded without severely hurting the Chinese economy.

You underestimate the insane R&D investment china can put on its chip industry to get ahead quicker

I may be naive, but I think R&D in those cutting-edge sectors is not something you can just throw money at and then get results, you need to create the foundation for it first. Is there evidence that links more open societies and liberal economies to technological progress?

If money was the driver the US would be first, not Taiwan.

TSMC isn’t the only thing they need to replace. ASML isn’t either. There’s multiple levels of sole suppliers for chipmaking that nobody can replace. China can’t replicate an mRNA vaccine either.

They already have mRNA vaccine in trial? Check AWCorna.

Okay so what's the plan after 20 years? Or do you think China won't be a problem for you anymore by then?

Sure, we are talking probably 20-30 years.

Good enough for what? The free world isn't standing still so China will always be several generations behind. The market wants the latest and greatest.

It's only if the free world can't compete will China catch up, in which case it will get what it deserves.

Good enough for 70% of dometic market demand, which analists have found is satisified by 14nm.

The thing is, "latest and greatest" is actually a niche demand, even if we don't feel like that's the case because of phones and laptops. The market for non-phone, non-laptop, boring unsexy applications that don't require more than 14nm is apparently much bigger.

lol your overstimate the Chinese tech by a generation at least.