>I see no reason this couldn’t happen for animation.

Because software had room to grow into all industries - which huge ROI, applicable everywhere.

Whereas animation has a capped target: it's content, of a specific type even, not a way to help other industries generate profit, like software is.

In a world where everyone is basically always consuming content I don’t really see this as a hard cap. Even if you’re not mindlessly scrolling through social media or watching Netflix, you still might be watching tutorials for work, or talking on slack, where we already use gifs and emojis. It’s definitely possible that animation eats the world, it would just have to move further down the spectrum from content to regular communication.

Economic growth has plenty of upside. I’d not be surprised to see 5-10% yoy economic growth as we approach the AGI frontier.

Animation has ALSO become faster and easier to write.

However, being a visual effects artist has actually gotten harder. The pay has become lower and the work has become much more demanding.

Source: https://www.cnet.com/culture/entertainment/marvels-vfx-artis...

>This seems like the logical progression and doesn’t necessarily result in a loss of jobs.

It is not the logical progression. Your conclusion isn't logical at all. It falls into typical biased trappings:

   1. People tend to bias towards optimism. 
   2. People tend to fall for analogies. If one scenario worked they may use that scenario as evidence to scaffold reasoning that suits their interpretation of reality. 

You made an idealized and biased hypothesis. Demand doesn't necessarily ALWAYS increase just because supply increases. It is the definition of being illogical.

When you look at people in the oil business and you ask how do they twist reality such that something like global warming doesn't exist for them; I have an answer for this question. It's from the exact same biased trappings I mentioned above.

When you look at people in the AI business and ask how do they twist reality such that the economic impact of AI can only be absolutely positive; I have an answer for this question. It's from the exact same biased trappings I mentioned above.

Don't be biased. Self reflect and change. AI can be a net benefit to society but it can also be a huge negative as well. Most likely it will be a combination of both.

I see the animation industry as being very similar to the VFX industry, and the famous case of Rhythm & Hue winning an Oscar award for what they did on the movie "Life of Pi" in the same year they went bankrupt and out of business.

The industry will still be there. But how much money you can make, and how many people you can afford to have on the payroll, that will diminish.

I think Corridor Crew is showing this effect with virtually every post to their YouTube channel.