I see no reason this couldn’t happen for animation. Studios demand more immersive, interactive experiences that require more and more detail. More animated content is generated. Every marketing team now needs 3D animators to make social media content, etc.
This seems like the logical progression and doesn’t necessarily result in a loss of jobs.
Because software had room to grow into all industries - which huge ROI, applicable everywhere.
Whereas animation has a capped target: it's content, of a specific type even, not a way to help other industries generate profit, like software is.
However, being a visual effects artist has actually gotten harder. The pay has become lower and the work has become much more demanding.
Source: https://www.cnet.com/culture/entertainment/marvels-vfx-artis...
>This seems like the logical progression and doesn’t necessarily result in a loss of jobs.
It is not the logical progression. Your conclusion isn't logical at all. It falls into typical biased trappings:
1. People tend to bias towards optimism.
2. People tend to fall for analogies. If one scenario worked they may use that scenario as evidence to scaffold reasoning that suits their interpretation of reality.
When you look at people in the oil business and you ask how do they twist reality such that something like global warming doesn't exist for them; I have an answer for this question. It's from the exact same biased trappings I mentioned above.
When you look at people in the AI business and ask how do they twist reality such that the economic impact of AI can only be absolutely positive; I have an answer for this question. It's from the exact same biased trappings I mentioned above.
Don't be biased. Self reflect and change. AI can be a net benefit to society but it can also be a huge negative as well. Most likely it will be a combination of both.
The industry will still be there. But how much money you can make, and how many people you can afford to have on the payroll, that will diminish.
I think Corridor Crew is showing this effect with virtually every post to their YouTube channel.
I have no doubt that management hopes that they will be able to cut costs through AI! My doubts come from the fact that the people most certain that this possible future will come to pass seem to be armchair experts outside the industry where people in the industry seem mostly excited about new tools and bemused with the IP issues around AI.
It's not like the last 20 years have been free of disruptions from software tools? I have no more of a crystal ball than anyone else, but this is only one of many confident predictions about AI killing human experts that has not yet come to pass. It's certainly possible, but I wouldn't invest based on it.
Not everything comes with a citation. Things first happen, then get studied, even if all the signs are there.
(Also, 'little citation' my ass. The post has links to video animation AI models, studios that already do this thing, papers and relevant technologies, etc. And it's just a post, not an exhausting monography on the subject)
>I have friends who work in animation and illustration professionally. Based off their predictions, the truth is likely far more mundane.
"It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on not understanding it" as the saying goes.
The change will not be driven by animators, but by people hiring animators that decide to cut costs by not hiring them.
Subpar results wont be a problem, if they're still good enough. There will be people helping and people touching up the end results, but half or less of what there are now...
I.e.: " These AI models will likely just become tools that automate or simplify existing animation workflows for larger projects. This would definitely result in less labor needed for any given project."
Yes, but much more dramatically so, to the point that there will big loss of jobs in the industry.