Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
by MereGurudev on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:33PM
(#33722880)
I think you were just unlucky with the opening! When I'm testing it's about 60/40 1...e5 vs 1...c5. The first opening moves should be quite close to what a 1600 FIDE player plays in online blitz.
Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
by myaccount9786 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:41PM
(#33722977)
Oh haha N=2 here, so you are probably right. Survivorship bias on my part.
I posted these stats in another thread:
According to https://lichess.org/analysis#1, for blitz and rapid games played on lichess with 1.e4, 1...e5 is 33%, 1...c5 is 25% and 1...e6 is 10%. And 35% is some other nonsense.
Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
by myaccount9786 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:43PM
(#33723002)
Does it use the frequencies from the lichess database? That would be pretty cool if it did!
Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
by garyrob on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:07PM
(#33722521)
An 1800 Lichess rating maps to 1420 FIDE or 1270 USCF. Not sure what standard is used by Noctie. (https://chessgoals.com/rating-comparison/)
Re:Show HN: Noctie – A chess AI that predicts your rating
by myaccount9786 on Wednesday November 23, 2022 @01:34PM
(#33722899)
Sure maybe the translation is wrong, but I'm saying there's bias in the test due to the fact it only plays sicilian to 1.e4. What about 1.e6 or 1.e5? Hard to estimate fide or lichess rating if you don't test those.
According to https://lichess.org/analysis#1, for blitz and rapid games played on lichess with 1.e4, 1...e5 is 33%, 1...c5 is 25% and 1...e6 is 10%. And 35% is some other nonsense.
Computer chess tournaments solve this problem by requiring the computers to play specific openings.
Its prediction was about 300 points low compared to actual lichess rating (1800). But online chess is very different; you see a lot of unsound openings that an engine wouldn't ever play.