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Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by polotics on Sunday November 20, 2022 @03:37PM (#33685004)
Rarely have I read such unmitigated bullshit, with wordy arrogance as topping. "We" didn't have a "Promethean backlash" in the 1970's, we had the first oil-availability crisis. Same as 2008 we conventional oil peaked, 2016 when... Just read the IEA reports, the IPCC reports...
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by wmf on Sunday November 20, 2022 @04:03PM (#33685271)
Shouldn't an oil crisis increase investment in nuclear power? Why did we have the opposite?
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by adam_arthur on Sunday November 20, 2022 @04:27PM (#33685524)
Because every time society figures out how much they depend on Oil, they'd rather go back to it than impoverish themselves
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by inglor_cz on Sunday November 20, 2022 @04:28PM (#33685545)
It had that effect in France and Japan.
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by thebooktocome on Sunday November 20, 2022 @04:17PM (#33685416)
Hypothesis: Oil crises increase the political power of fossil fuel extractors, which can then use regulatory capture to prevent competition.
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by dredmorbius on Sunday November 20, 2022 @04:51PM (#33685796)
Other forces at play.

The nuclear energy movement in the 1970s was closely affiliated with the nuclear weapons movement. As one indicator of the latter, the phrase "ban the bomb" was already peaking in 1963, as the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty was being proposed: <https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=ban+the+bomb&y...> (Google Ngram viewer)

A similar search for "anti-nuclear movement" shows a later peak, in the late 1970s, which would correspond with the Three Mile Island incident (1979): <https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=anti-nuclear+m...>

Essentially, nuclear power had a significant public-image problem, and it got markedly worse just as embargo-based oil shortages were peaking for a second (and far more significant) time, with the Iranian Oil Embargo (also 1979): <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis>

Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by encoderer on Sunday November 20, 2022 @06:18PM (#33686601)
3 mile island at the same time.
Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by cauch on Sunday November 20, 2022 @06:30PM (#33686700)
Well, renewable power saw their investment increased, I think.

I think the reason why the investment in nuclear power did not increase is because nuclear is very much not an attractive investment.

Such project needs a LOT of money just to start, and that will take YEARS to be finished. But the success of this project depends on variables that are extremely hard to predict: in 10 years, what will be the electricity demand curve, what will be the import and export market with other countries, or within the same country, what will be the environmental surrounding (if it turns out the river you use to provide cooling is changing, or if the site turns out to not be exactly as predicted during the initial survey, ...). If you have just one small problem in the chain, you have very expensive consequences. For example, defects in the structure may render the whole plant totally useless. And what about the workforce: you build a plant in 10 years, and when it is finished, you have only a handful of people knowing how to make it works (you cannot force people to choose specific studies if they don't want to, and forming people takes ages), so you need to increase their salary and, again, you end up with a situation were you lose money. And what if the laws change, and some subsidies that you were including in your planning disappear, or some local governance comes up with some restrictions, ..?

And, on top of that, a failed nuclear power plant project will still cost you money for decades. If it never runs, you will have huge debt with absolutely nothing that can give you a bit of money back. If it runs a little bit, you will need to pay a lot to dismantle it properly.

I think it's the main reason why investment in nuclear power did not increase as much as one could naively think: investors, when they look closely at it, see that it is still a huge gamble, with a big probability to be disastrous for them.

Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by thworp on Monday November 21, 2022 @10:46AM (#33693848)
> Such project needs a LOT of money just to start, and that will take YEARS to be finished. But the success of this project depends on variables that are extremely hard to predict: [...]

You could say the same thing about chip fabs or large mines. I'd say chip fabs face even more uncertainty. While baseload electricity will always be in demand, in the chip industry your 3 billion $ fab could be completed at the bottom end of boom-bust cycle and lead you into bankruptcy.

Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by cauch on Monday November 21, 2022 @04:57PM (#33698604)
And?

My point is not that nuclear plants are unique, and that no other industry shares some similarities, my point is that nuclear plants are a risky investment, and that it explains why the investment does not simply increased when the oil starts to be a problem, especially if there are strong competitors like renewables (they also have their problems, but they are competitive: their problems are not bigger than the ones of the nuclear).

If fact, I could even have started my paragraph with "like chip fabs or large mines ..." without changing anything to the point I was making.

That being said, I still think that even for chip fabs, small bits of a failed chip fab can still be resold more easily in order to compensate part of the loss. Same for mines: I'm sure there are uncertainties, but mines do not accumulate all the disadvantages of a nuclear power plant.

Re:The Anti-Promethean Backlash by philipkglass on Sunday November 20, 2022 @06:42PM (#33686792)
There was some use of oil for generating electric power, but most oil then (as now) was used for transportation. In the US in 1970 only 6.1% of oil was consumed for generating electricity [1]. Electricity has only recently become a viable substitute for liquid fuels in ground transportation and it still can't substitute for long distance shipping or air travel. Since electricity couldn't replace transportation fuel at the time, and there wasn't a lot of oil consumed in electricity generation in the first place, nuclear power could not do much to compensate for swiftly rising oil prices.

[1] https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs9912/m1/1/... See table 3.