Veldhoven :)
I agree with you that the need maybe will not be there exactly when they have built out.
Also note that TSMC, Intel and a whole bunch of others are currently starting to build, or plan to build, new fabs (partly due to the new Chip Act). And they will need stuff from ASML.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TL9Q435KU_Y
I don't think they are "completely disassembled" before shipping.
My point is that the size of the container tells something about the size of the components. "Completely disassembled" would mean every nut and bolt would be taken apart, which I don't think is the case given the size of the container.
And you're missing the fact that the outside of the box isn't a clean room, and it has to mate with the clean room at the customer facilities. A bajillion baggies of parts is a non starter if the outside of those baggies isn't a clean room env.
So, it's really hard to scale that process for building new machines.
They've got money burning in their pockets and no better place to spend it, so what do they do? Stock buybacks.
Disclaimer: I did a six month contract working for them several years ago, when they were towards the start of developing their EUV process. It was a real eye opener to have the tour of the facility and have everything explained to me.