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Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by pseudosavant on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @05:27PM (#33538947)
FTX going under due to magic beans reminds me so much of Lehman Brothers going under in 2008. That time the magic beans were "mortgage backed securities" that somehow took low-quality debt, mixed it up with some magic, and out came high-quality debt, only it didn't.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by kristjansson on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @05:44PM (#33539171)
The problem with MBS was always the zero-sum nature of the alchemy. They took 100 low-quality loans in, and returned 10 high-quality loans, 30 ok-ish loans, and 60 dog-shit loans. No harm no foul, until the dog-shit tranches were marketed as ok-ish, and alchemists believed they we're really creating gold.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by dragontamer on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @05:53PM (#33539301)
CDOs weren't the problem. You see, mixing together dog-shit __ONCE__ isn't that big of a deal.

CDO-squared (CDOs of CDOs) were a problem. If you took those 60 dog-shit loans, mixed them together, and created 10 high quality loans out of them, problems began to occur.

Even then, it wasn't the CDO-squared that collapsed the whole thing. It was the CDS: the "insurance" (so to speak) on the CDO-squared that made things go haywire.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by pseudosavant on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:24PM (#33539658)
Nested leveraging is a common theme. Each layer is leveraged and but supposedly protected by another layer's risk management.

Go through enough layers and you eventually hit an insurer that has zero chance of being able to cover all of the losses of everyone. It could be CDS of CDOs of CDOs, or coins being backed by other coins.

Thankfully the average person is less affected by crypto losses than mortgages, or in the case of the depression, stocks.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by oliwary on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:22PM (#33539627)
I am fascinated by the number of layers of abstractions built on top of each other in these financial products... Bankers seem to rival programmers in their ability to stack abstractions on top of each other until it is impossible to understand how the underlying system relates to the top layer.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by pseudosavant on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:29PM (#33539703)
You could say that MBS/CDOs were 'leaky abstractions', and that there were equivalents to 'code smells' to suggest they weren't the golden debt they masqueraded as. I can't think of other professions that develop the same level of abstractions that programmers and bankers create. Layers and layers of inputs and outputs.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by TheOtherHobbes on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:58PM (#33540046)
You could also say they were deliberate fraud.

The number of big-name banks whose actions are questionable [1] - if not actually criminal - is astonishing.

[1] As reported by insider papers like the Financial Times.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by htrp on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:40PM (#33539820)
A structured products desk is basically a microservices team
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by 6stringmerc on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:44PM (#33539868)
Actually AIG and other bond insurers really got the bailouts too.

I remember a guy bragging about helping another firm backdate its books to get bail out money. He was bragging. Still remember his name and how he got his pill head daughter a Cush company paid job in London.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by bagels on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @10:54PM (#33542001)
Were the risk models assuming no correlation between the risk of the underlying securities?
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by ethbr0 on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @05:53PM (#33539305)
The central MBS problem seemed to be ratings-based-regulation + free-market-unregulated-ratings-agencies.

In hindsight, it should have been structured like government insurance servicers: subject to random and regular audits, with $$$ fines if they turn up anything fishy.

If you don't want corruption, engineer a system where not being corrupt is more profitable...

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by throw474374383 on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @07:22PM (#33540341)
I talked to a banker at the time (from BoA I think) and he said these things came about by the banks re-arranging the structure again and again, running it through the risk and credit rating algorithms and then tweaking and retrying until they got something with a good rating. So essentially that's like finding exploits in the other parties risk calculation algorithms or credit rating algorithms until you find some hack that labels crap as gold. So I think of it as hacking basically. The banks figured out how to hack Moody's algorithms, as it were.

Don't forget through all of that madness Moody's was rating utter crap as AAA

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_rating_agencies_and_t...

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by jcbrand on Thursday November 10, 2022 @04:16AM (#33544038)
If you have a metric, eventually it'll be gamed.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by ThrustVectoring on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @11:05PM (#33542059)
Mortgage-backed securities weren't exactly the problem, it was merely the vehicle in which a trans-Atlantic banking regulation arbitrage trade was carried out, and the trade accidentally became fully self-financing. US mortgage originators and banks were allowed to take risk if they sold it off onto the capital markets, and EU banks were allowed to take risk as long as it was deemed "safe" by ratings agencies.

The truly pernicious part is the self-financing spiral. Banks issued mortgages, which deposit cash in the home seller's account. Seller puts the cash into a money market fund. MMF gets short-term interest by financing AAA-rated securities. EU banks use this financing to buy senior tranches of MBSes. These MBS purchases allow banks to issue more mortgages by freeing up their capitalization.

Like, zero-sum alchemy will only generate small frauds and relatively limited losses. You need large amounts of leverage and some kind of self-financing spiral to generate catastrophic de-leveraging events.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by NotYourLawyer on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:07PM (#33539484)
It feels magical, but that part is actually fine. The senior claims on that combined debt really can be pretty high quality. The junior claims are dogshit though.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by htrp on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:39PM (#33539810)
But you can tranche the dogshit and come out with some high quality senior claims :-D
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @06:58PM (#33540043)
"Certainly more study is needed on this issue. But the degree to which the Community Reinvestment Act (renewed and strengthened in 1995; see attached chart), the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act and the many other planks of the raft of federal regulation which have built up over the past couple of decades has pushed the banking industry into making the loans for which they are now being criticized is far and away the most under covered aspect of this story. "

https://www.cnbc.com/id/25195425

It's amazing how the government somehow managed to successfully pin all the blame on corporations for problems it helped cause. From wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis

"Lenders made loans that they knew borrowers could not afford and that could cause massive losses to investors in mortgage securities."

Of course, it was the government itself that pressured banks to make these loans in the first place. From https://www.appeal-democrat.com/thomas-sowell-government-cre...

"All this was an opening salvo in a campaign to get Congress to pass laws forcing lenders to lend to people they would not otherwise lend to and in places where they would not otherwise put their money."

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mscarborough on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @07:23PM (#33540357)
Making the subprime loans in the first place doesn't necessitate packing them into opaque financial instruments and going bananas with the wildly over-leveraged profit-seeking.

Financial firms has been making tons of money during decades of increasing wealth inequality. Sure, let's talk about these congressional acts, but not going to put a lot of blame on relatively small programs that required these firms to throw back some scraps.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @08:48PM (#33541096)
I'd rather have wealth inequality, which is natural, especially in a world where even the poorest have only gotten richer over time, than have enforced wealth equity, which has resulted in near universal poverty nearly everywhere it's been implemented. People calling for enforced wealth equity don't have the moral high ground. They're in the moral caves and pits!

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/financial...

"The seeds of the financial crisis were planted during years of rock-bottom interest rates and loose lending standards that fueled a housing price bubble in the U.S. and elsewhere.

It began, as usual, with good intentions. Faced with the bursting of the dot-com bubble, a series of corporate accounting scandals, and the September 11 terrorist attacks, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate from 6.5% in May 2000 to 1% in June 2003. 4 5 The aim was to boost the economy by making money available to businesses and consumers at bargain rates. e result was an upward spiral in home prices as borrowers took advantage of the low mortgage rates. 6

Even subprime borrowers, those with poor or no credit history, were able to realize the dream of buying a home. "

The repeated story of our government's behavior in the financial sector is:

1) act with supposedly good intentions

2) Mess everything up

3) Blame the mess on someone else and call for more government action to clean things up.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Thursday November 10, 2022 @05:53AM (#33544768)
People like you are so annoying. Super natural to have 70 people control 50 percent of the world wealth. Ace.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Thursday November 10, 2022 @10:24AM (#33547796)
At what point in the world's history has wealth not been concentrated? What, therefore, is your argument or evidence that wealth inequity isn't natural? Even in video games with an online economy and trade that resets periodically, within a week of a reset you'll see massive disparity in wealth between the top and everyone else that only grows over time. And I mean massive.

You should read "Wealth, Poverty, and Politics." It really is illuminating to learn at an academic level how wealth has been produced throughout history and some reasons why it is distributed unevenly.

https://www.amazon.com/Wealth-Poverty-Politics-Thomas-Sowell...

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Thursday November 10, 2022 @01:58PM (#33551361)
What is this magical wealth you speak of? Who is ensuring it, who is guarding it? It’s a game that people play until they feel it gives them a reasonable chance to live. Once that’s gone all bets are off and your magical numbers on a computer don’t mean much.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Thursday November 10, 2022 @06:53PM (#33555402)
From Merriam-Webster, wealth is:

a: all property that has a money value or an exchangeable value

b: all material objects that have economic utility

I'm not sure what' you're talking about with regards to "ensuring" or "guarding" it. But in general, wealth is produced in various forms by people. That's generally the goal of work! Just as important, wealth decays over time. And, like with everything else in this universe, everything related to the production and maintenance of wealth is unevenly distributed, including:

1) Physical resources

2) knowledge and skills

3) cultural and moral values

4) geopolitical landscape

5) personality and personal productive capacity

6) social circumstances

7) dumb luck

Given that none of this is evenly distributed between individuals, groups, nations, etc., it's absurd to expect wealth to be evenly distributed, even in a hypothetically just world. In fact, based on what we know, we should expect differential wealth to be a simple and indisputable fact of life.

In a functioning economy, people earn money by creating value for others. This generally means that even as the rich get richer, so do the poor. It is hardly disputable that capitalism has done more to lift more people out of poverty than any other economic system. Also, because wealth decays, to maintain wealth one must invest it to produce more of it. It is through this investment that society can benefit as a whole.

The problems with wealth redistribution include:

1) By taking wealth from people who know generally able to best produce it, you reduce their ability to invest wealth to produce more of it. All of society suffers for this as overall wealth decreases for everyone.

2) When giving wealth to people who aren't producing anything, they take the wealth and spend it without creating any more wealth. Overall wealth decreases for everyone. It is hardly disputable that welfare programs in Western countries have led to far more dependence and far more able-bodied people not working than before these programs existed.

It is not an accident that wealth redistribution makes countries poorer, ultimately harming the poor that the redistribution is meant to help. We should be focusing less on wealth equity and more on wealth production and maintenance.

https://www.northwood.edu/afeu/when-free-to-choose/how-to-en...

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Friday November 11, 2022 @05:30AM (#33559041)
Yeah go tell Jack Ma or any Russian “billionaire” how great their wealth is. There are people (police, army) that ensure ownership is respected. What happens when they refuse to do it? You have such a naive understanding of things I don’t know why I’m even having this discussion.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Friday November 11, 2022 @07:57AM (#33560259)
They're billionares. How much they have and how secure they are in keeping it are not the same thing. Countries with a stronger, more just, and neutral rule of law tend to prosper more than those who don't, all other things being equal. This is just another case of the conditions for maintaining wealth not being equal. I don't understand how anything I say contradicts anything you are saying.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Friday November 11, 2022 @08:20AM (#33560505)
There is no objective wealth. People use money as a record of bookkeeping until it serves them a purpose. Once people feel the system is unfair or they go hungry all your numbers on a screen mean nothing. Once a fascist is elected and everything is nationalized all those numbers mean nothing. Once birthrates drop, once a billion people start migrating, once you piss of somebody with actual power (guns, mob, crony system…) see if your money or a record in some ledger that you own something means anything. Unequality is one of the major signals for a system toppling down, people don’t say well I don’t have money I guess I’ll let my children starve, too bad
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Friday November 11, 2022 @12:13PM (#33563517)
I'm not saying wealth == money. Look at my previous definition of wealth. And, I don't think anyone would argue with you that when governments and people take the actions you prescribe, wealth gets destroyed. What many don't realize, is that when you destroy the producers of wealth, you end up shooting yourself in the foot. When Stalin killed all the productive "bourgeoise" farmers, millions died of starvation. When the Spaniards kicked out the productive Jews and stole their property, the net result over time was that Spain became far poorer than before. In fact, what you are describing has happened time and time again throughout history and has resulted in greater poverty for theaggressors every time!

One of the preconditions of the level of prosperity we experience today is government stability and essentially British or Western European laws and cultural and Christian values. As those things erode, prosperity decreases. And, there is a great threat of worldwide prosperity taking a nosedive on many fronts, including the global ESG movement, WEF great reset, socialist/communist/fascist/authoritarian government movements, etc. We are very fortunate to have experienced the overall wealth that we do today, and, unfortunately, it's probably only going to get worse from here the way things are going.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Friday November 11, 2022 @03:50PM (#33566632)
Mate it’s like you’re paraphrasing “American Captialist Patriot 101”, but I really don’t feel like having this discussion atm
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Friday November 11, 2022 @03:52PM (#33566655)
Then don't respond. My goal is to convince you and other readers of something that I believe to be true and valuable to our society. If you have no similar motivation, then there's certainly no reason to respond. You're certainly not going to convince me of anything by making baseless statements like that I'm paraphrasing some non-existent textbook, and then failing to give me, or anyone else, anything meaningful to think about.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by mstipetic on Thursday November 17, 2022 @04:22PM (#33645922)
I would have this discussion but not with somebody whose understanding of the world fits in a 12 minute based YouTube video
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by throw474374383 on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @07:32PM (#33540448)
Right so it's the government's fault for encouraging the corporations to do something they didn't really want to do, which inevitably led to the corporations naked inhuman amoral greed running amock.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by JackFr on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @10:57PM (#33542012)
Do you think there was a sea change in the base level of greed in the run up to the financial crisis? (Remembering of course that it’s impossible for a corporation to be greedy, only a human being can be so.)

I’ve been beating this drum for more than 10 years. The big story of the financial crisis is that while there was fraud and corruption at the margins, the bulk of the economic dislocation was caused by well intentioned people making good faith decisions that in hindsight proved very foolish. People who had no business buying a home or taking out that loan were. Banks were making the loans not just because there was a global capital glut chasing returns, the credit tranching structures were working, and the ever rising house prices hid any risk. No one in the industry had seen house prices broadly go down in generations. In retrospect there were a number of systemic issues that now seem obvious, but having been there it wasn’t that obvious at the time.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by throw474374383 on Thursday November 10, 2022 @03:55AM (#33543914)
the bulk of the economic dislocation was caused by well intentioned people making good faith decisions that in hindsight proved very foolish

I agree with that. But that comes about because we've arranged our economic activity into monolithic 'corporations' that are immortal, have the legal status of persons, and are compelled to chase shortsighted profit above all else, show no remorse, and any moral wrongdoing is just a slight financial risk to be approached like any other monetary risk.

All the humans working for the oil industry today are making good faith decisions but together they work for a massive unstoppable inhuman juggernaut that is destroying our climate while fighting every attempt to rein it in with every means possible at its disposal.

And yes I can call corporations greedy. They have demanded to be treated as people in the courts of law so I'll judge them as people

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Friday November 11, 2022 @04:33PM (#33567147)
Here's the thing. Most corporations today believe in "stakeholder" capitalism . Most follow ESG. This means they explicitly state that they are not all about profit but instead also about making the world a "better" place. And what is the result of that? I would argue that corporations are now more evil than ever.

Capitalism is great, but it only works when founded on a strong moral framework. Christianity served that purpose for the history of capitalism. However, once you abandon or corrupt your morality, then you'll see the majority of corporations do evil things, no matter whether they claim to only care about profits, or whether they claim that they also want to save the environment and bring about equity, inclusivity, or whatever Marxist Utopian ideal is in vogue at the moment.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by SantalBlush on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @07:20PM (#33540325)
That banks extended bad loans under pressure from the government suggests they did so at a loss; otherwise, they would have done it anyway in search of profit. Moreover, Sowell makes bold claims and offers little evidence beyond references to redlining, while the evidence that banks were engaged in unethical and fraudulent practices are backed up by cold-hard data and an abundance of testimony from people within the industry. Sowell's essay is revisionism.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @08:41PM (#33541048)
They didn't have to do it at a loss because the government federally insured these loans: https://fee.org/articles/how-the-federal-government-created-...
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by JackFr on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @11:03PM (#33542047)
You understand the borrowers weren’t the victims of the fraud —- in fact they were engaged in it. The banks settled on charges of selling securities backed by loans that they had not sufficiently vetted, of which many turned out bad.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by vkou on Thursday November 10, 2022 @02:03AM (#33543183)
The banks issuing the loans weren't the victims of the fraud, either. They were making money hand over fist repackaging and reselling those shitty loans.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by uMeanPpl on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @07:42PM (#33540543)
By government you mean a handful of legislators.

The public has been treating their Senators and Representatives like celebrities.

Electoral turnovers flush corruption; we really need to stop being ruled by pudding brains with no skin in the future game who LARP concern while doing nothing but living easy: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29766

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by PathOfEclipse on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @08:42PM (#33541058)
I mean, ultimately government == a handful of legislators plus the executive and judicial branches. If you're suggesting we could avoid this by having the right people in office, you are right. But the founders of our government also clearly stated that if men were angels, they wouldn't even need to be governed, and if the government were run by angels, it wouldn't need to be limited, nor would it need checks and balances. We've forgotten this lesson over and over as our government continues to grow and remove checks against its power.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by rhaway84773 on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @08:17PM (#33540865)
Bad loans being transformed into A+ loans through bundling wasn’t forced by the govt.

And the government didn’t force banks to buy loans from originators who were known to fake documents, and then give them 120 LTV loans.

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by memish on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @09:17PM (#33541343)
Get ready to have your mind blown. Watch this

https://twitter.com/HaloCrypto/status/1590417311839981569

Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by jl2718 on Wednesday November 09, 2022 @10:43PM (#33541929)
I was once surprised to learn that, in some cultures, dishonesty is regarded as a skill. After all these years, I’m starting to see their point.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by goodcanadian on Thursday November 10, 2022 @05:14AM (#33544492)
There are already a lot of replies, so maybe it is pointless adding my own . . . My understanding of the problem with mortgage backed securities was that the calculations assumed the risks on the low-quality debt was uncorrelated. If that were true, all of the math works out, and there is no problem with mortgage backed securities. The reality was/is, however, that the risks on those loans were, in fact, highly correlated. The conditions that caused one loan to default also made it much more likely that others mixed up in the pot would also default. In that case, the math was wrong and the magic failed. I suppose we could argue all day about whether that was an honest mistake or deliberate manipulation.
Re:We will not pursue the potential acquisition of FTX by tdullien on Thursday November 10, 2022 @05:21AM (#33544541)
It was broken incentives. Give people a financial incentive to do something that can look like an honest mistake in retrospect, and they will make a lot of "honest mistakes".