Again this comes from experience at two FAANGs. Most high level business leaders started 20 years ago. You can present whatever type of logic you want, the data doesnt support the logic.
At every step, it’s a filtering function.
Of the hundreds who were there at the beginning, who has kept up and continued to grow, without screwing it up?
Who learned the new skills, who figured out the limiting factors and discarded them, vs who didn’t?
Personally, my ratio at the time I left for personal reasons was around 1 in 600ish, depending on how you counted.
I’ve known others that were higher, and a few that were lower.
It’s always less risky for the company to keep someone who continues to work, rather than roll the dice on an unknown quantity, of course, but the filtering mechanism is still harsh, and most don’t pass it.
Is it difficult because people like this are rare, or because so few people are ever considered for these positions?
The number of potential candidates is usually pretty small, after all the filtering, because of this.
Because those people are rare.
In my personal experience, perhaps 1 in 1000 have the mental fortitude and raw capabilities for it, but then they need the experience and knowledge in the space for any of that to matter, so the pool of course gets smaller. Even fewer have the personal life circumstances to allow it (aka the right kind of support structures, the right kind of stability).
There are also a lot of folks faking it.
It’s unusual for even a dozen candidates, to make the short list.
That’s total fantasy.
If someone is really really good, it can look like they’re not doing much for anyone who doesn’t know what to look for, for the same reason a ships captain who is looking like they aren’t doing anything is usually a really really good one.
The folks who directly interact with them often are well aware of this, but in a large org that may only be a couple percent of the organization.
Because they set the right culture to get things done smoothly, they’ve hired and trained the right leaders to make sure the right decisions get made (and oversee them appropriately), they chart a course that produces the right outcomes without a lot of drama, they delegate what they need to, but not things they should not, have problems dealt with proactively before they cause major issues, etc.
If you see a ships captain running around looking busy all the time, or even worse, dealing with major issues all the time, that’s a terrible captain.
Same with a business unit leader.
Paying attention to what needs to be paid attention to for all that to work correctly, and integrating that into the correct action is extremely difficult.
Especially under stress, and with constant distractions, which that level in Tech has a huge amount of.
It is very difficult to find someone who can do it, and they command a premium because of it. Hands on experience with the tech and people over a long period of time is a huge help, but just being around awhile is no guarantee of success. The filter is very harsh.
Lack of someone who does it effectively, or if they lose their ability to be effective, gets really obvious really quick, and has major consequences for the organization.