Re:Ask HN: What Recession?
by dpedu on Friday November 04, 2022 @11:08AM
(#33467989)
According to the general definition of a recession - two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product - the U.S. entered a recession in the summer of 2022.
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And we left the recession in Q3?
Probably depends on whether it stays up or not. See here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA
7 of the 12 recessions marked on the graph temporarily jumped up then dropped back down during the recession.
A note though that the "2 quarters negative real GDP growth" has only ever been a rule of thumb that tends to fit (on that graph above, the dips below 0 outside of recessions only ever lasted one quarter). The official determination has always been made by NBER ( https://www.nber.org/ ), and how they determine it is more complicated (though AFAIK the details aren't public). I think it's too soon for them to make a determination on this one though, they make it while looking backwards, so these two quarters may yet become official which would maintain the pattern.