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Re:Ask HN: What Recession? by Izkata on Friday November 04, 2022 @12:07PM (#33468992)
Probably depends on whether it stays up or not. See here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1Q225SBEA

7 of the 12 recessions marked on the graph temporarily jumped up then dropped back down during the recession.

A note though that the "2 quarters negative real GDP growth" has only ever been a rule of thumb that tends to fit (on that graph above, the dips below 0 outside of recessions only ever lasted one quarter). The official determination has always been made by NBER ( https://www.nber.org/ ), and how they determine it is more complicated (though AFAIK the details aren't public). I think it's too soon for them to make a determination on this one though, they make it while looking backwards, so these two quarters may yet become official which would maintain the pattern.

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