Re:Rate Hikes Are Affecting the Economy
by refurb on Wednesday November 02, 2022 @10:46AM
(#33436677)
Interesting. The excess deaths from graph looks to be ~500,000 to 600,000, not the 1,000,000 that is claimed.
Re:Rate Hikes Are Affecting the Economy
by katbyte on Wednesday November 02, 2022 @11:09AM
(#33437082)
There are two datapoints with a 500,000-750,000 jump so yes the chart shows over 1,000,0000. And that doesn’t take into account the drop in normal deaths from lockdowns and wfh but anyways.
Re:Rate Hikes Are Affecting the Economy
by refurb on Wednesday November 02, 2022 @07:10PM
(#33444149)
Two jumps? So 1.5M died?
But you are correct, it's cumulative, so without Covid you'd expect max ~100,000 more deaths per year (aging population), so the baseline would be
2019 - 2.8M (+0 excess deaths)
2020 - 2.9M (+500k excess deaths)
2021 - 3.0M (+400k excess deaths)
So 900k.
I guess half a million people dying is fine then.
Re:Rate Hikes Are Affecting the Economy
by hnaccount_rng on Wednesday November 02, 2022 @12:30PM
(#33438513)
But that works out nicely right? 6m typical + 1m by covid -> 15-20% extra?
It's not difficult to find expected deaths vs actual deaths in 2020, but I've been on the internet long enough to know that someone who laces their post with conservative buzzwords, aka someone who hasn't learned themselves into their position, will have no interest in learning anything they disagree with.
2020 had the largest mortality spike in 100 years and 15-20% more deaths than expected, despite a lockdown which would reduce some accidental death rate such as car accidents.
But I'm making this post for people who care about reality, not for you.