News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:11PM (#33360746)
I’ll continue to harp on this wherever anyone will hear because it’s insane to me that nobody is connecting the two, but in the past two years we’ve let in ~5 million illegal immigrants and built ~3 million homes.

Without all of that immigration we could incredibly easily get the supply and demand ratio back under control. It’s by far the easiest solution and could be done instantly. It’s just unpalatable to one side of the political aisle and to some businesses that want cheap labor.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by UncleOxidant on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:24PM (#33360927)
Without all that immigration it would cost a lot more to build houses.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:05PM (#33367146)
It would cost more, but materials are the largest cost. A significant part of the labor are more skilled jobs that illegal immigrants can't do - plumbing, electrical, etc.

And if people aren't building because it makes more sense to buy a "used" house material prices would also drop.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by hedora on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:51PM (#33367462)
Materials aren't the largest cost around here (California) There has been a massive worker shortage since 2008, so even incompetent people can charge way more than material costs for most installation jobs. (And then you pay a second person even more.)

Permitting, engineering, etc are also expensive.

Finally, construction costs are difficult to estimate up front, so it is difficult to be a rational actor when deciding to build or not.

After all, if you hit a 33% cost overrun half way through building, your best option is to pay the 33%. At that point the house costs 83% of the expected price of starting over. If you stop now, then you are out 50% of the initial budget.

If you think facing such a tradeoff is rare, look around for lots that are for sale with pre-approved plans or partially constructed houses. They're usually pretty easy to find.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by hedora on Thursday October 27, 2022 @11:59PM (#33367526)
I heard a quote from roughly a hundred years ago, from a US immigrant. Paraphrased from memory:

I came to the US and found that, not only were the streets not paved with gold, they weren't paved at all. Furthermore, I was the one that was expected to pave them!

I don't think much has changed on that front.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by theGnuMe on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:16PM (#33360815)
What is your hypothesis exactly? Are you saying those 5m folks took the 3m houses?
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by dsfyu404ed on Thursday October 27, 2022 @02:32PM (#33361918)
He's saying that while the numbers make it look like we're building homes slightly faster than the population is growing that's not the case once you count off the books immigration. So the housing deficit is getting worse, not better.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by UncleOxidant on Thursday October 27, 2022 @02:44PM (#33362100)
Off-the-books immigration is by definition tough to quantify. But it doesn't seem likely that illegal immigrants are either renting or buying houses in large numbers since they don't tend to have a lot of money. More likely they're doubling up with family that's already here and as such not causing a significant amount of housing demand.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @10:59PM (#33367093)
That's a huge reach. You can only "double up" so much.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by theGnuMe on Friday October 28, 2022 @08:28AM (#33370542)
Yeah they quadruple up or even live 10 families to a 2bdrm and sleep in shifts.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by UncleOxidant on Friday October 28, 2022 @02:41PM (#33375603)
A hispanic family lives next door. 1200 sq ft. house. 4 BR (it would be 3 BR but the garage was converted to a BR), 1 bathroom. At times they've had up to 12 people living there. I can't imagine it, but somehow they manage to make it work.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by vibrio on Thursday October 27, 2022 @01:43PM (#33361199)
Labor tightness seems to be one of the drivers of the broader inflation. Additional labor may help keep that inflation under control without having to nuke the economy.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @10:52PM (#33367027)
Right, and at the same time we've seen wages go up appreciably for the low end of the labor market for the first time in a long time.

I'm not saying there wouldn't be other issues with clamping down on immigration, but if you're trying to tackle the supply and demand issue it's the easiest way to handle it.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by vibrio on Sunday October 30, 2022 @01:43PM (#33396705)
In your mind, what are the drivers for the need to clamp down on immigration?
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by allturtles on Thursday October 27, 2022 @02:49PM (#33362190)
Where does this 5 million number come from? [0] estimates that the net change in illegal immigrant population in the U.S. since 2019 is close to 0.

[0]: https://cis.org/Report/Estimating-Illegal-Immigrant-Populati...

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @10:54PM (#33367040)
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistic...

Note that's just "enforcement actions," which nowadays largely means giving them a court date and letting them go. It doesn't count anyone who snuck in successfully.

Here's another link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/migrant-border-...

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by allturtles on Friday October 28, 2022 @10:19AM (#33371682)
You said "we’ve let in ~5 million illegal immigrants" but this is the count of 'actions', some of which are almost certainly with the same people multiple times. This number also includes some people who weren't even trying to get in illegally:

"Inadmissibles refers to individuals encountered at ports of entry who are seeking lawful admission into the United States but are determined to be inadmissible, individuals presenting themselves to seek humanitarian protection under our laws, and individuals who withdraw an application for admission and return to their countries of origin within a short timeframe."

It's not totally clear, but it seems that it also includes other "border enforcement" actions that are not necessarily related to immigration at all, e.g. intellectual property and drug seizures.

So it has nothing to do with what you were claiming.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Friday October 28, 2022 @12:06PM (#33373284)
Right, but there's no way to get accurate numbers so that's the best we can do. If it's 4 million or 6 million it doesn't really matter that much - the point is it's uncontrolled migration to a country with a housing shortage.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by aeternum on Thursday October 27, 2022 @03:44PM (#33362992)
The population pyramid matters quite a bit. Increased working-age population generally pushes prices down thus in most cases immigration reduces housing cost and inflation by decreasing labor costs.
Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by pixelatedindex on Thursday October 27, 2022 @05:47PM (#33364492)
> it’s insane to me that nobody is connecting the two, but in the past two years we’ve let in ~5 million illegal immigrants and built ~3 million homes.

What is the connection here? And why is there a qualification of "illegal"? If these were legal immigrants, what would that change?

You're implying that demand is greater than supply, which has been quite overtly mentioned by many.

Re:US economy returned to growth last quarter, expanding 2.6% by AuryGlenz on Thursday October 27, 2022 @10:56PM (#33367062)
Of course demand is greater than supply. If it wasn't prices wouldn't be increasing greater than the rate of inflation.

You're right that the type of immigrants don't matter, but the reason I mentioned illegal immigrants is because the amount is completely uncontrolled. Legal immigration we could easily ramp up or down.