How long do you think until the horse looks perfect? 12 months? 5 years? I’m still 30 and I don’t see how my industry won’t be entirely disrupted by this within the next decade.

And that’s my optimistic projection. It could be we have amazing output in 24 months.

IT has been disrupting itself for six decades and there are more developers than ever, with high pay.

Have to temper expectations with fact that a generated video of a thing is also a recording of a simulation of the thing. For long video, you'd want everything from temporal consistency and emotional affect maintenance to conservation of energy, angular momentum and respecting this or that dynamics.

A bunch of fields would be simultaneously impacted. From computational physics to 3D animation (if you have a 3D renderer and video generator, you can compose both). While it's not completely unfounded to extrapolate that progress will be as fast as with everything prior, consequences would be a lot more profound while complexities are much compounded. I down weight accordingly even though I'd actually prefer to be wrong.

It's not about random short clips - imagine introducing a character like Mickey Mouse and reusing him everywhere with the same character - my guess is it's going to take a while until "transfer" like that will work reliably.

Dreambooth and Texual inversion is already here, and it's been just over a month since Stable Diffusion was released, so I'd bet on sooner rather than later.

https://github.com/XavierXiao/Dreambooth-Stable-Diffusion

https://textual-inversion.github.io/

Think about where this stuff was 2 years ago and then think about where it will be 2 years from now.

Relationships between objects has been a problem with computer vision for a long time.

10 years ago: https://karpathy.github.io/2012/10/22/state-of-computer-visi...

Now: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.13807

Given that this is what makes photos and videos interesting I think it's still a while before artists are automated.

Take a look at Flamingo "solving" the joke: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSFwYL7WUAEgxqQ?format=jpg&name=...