How representative is Aronian as an example of skill trajectories in chess?

> How representative is Aronian as an example of skill trajectories in chess?

It doesn't really matter, does it? There's a big difference between telling someone "if you're not a GM by age 14 [but actually I mean 15], then don't bother, it's hopeless" and "a typical top-level player reaches GM by age 14, but it is possible to reach that level even if you are a relatively 'late bloomer'." I'd prefer not to err on the side of telling people not to try.

as a rule it is decidedly uncouth in our society to use population statistics when speaking in terms of ability or potential, as the act of making those statements can bias real world abilities and potentials by setting expectations of limits.

>It doesn't really matter, does it?

It's literally the single most important fact in this context.

If there are lots of people like Aronian, then there's nothing out of the ordinary about the evolution of Hans Neiman as a player. If he's a rare and unusual example, he shouldn't be cited to suggest Hans' skill growth is within the norm.

>I'd prefer not to err on the side of telling people not to try.

This is a non-sequitur.

There's a big difference between "[if you're not a GM by age 14], it is unlikely that you can reach the top levels of chess." and "..then don't bother, it's hopeless". The former statement is perfectly valid, nobody saying that it's hopeless

> nobody saying that it's hopeless

Well, it's a report about cheating which is essentially claiming that if you're not a GM by age 14, then you must be cheating. Which is...kind of the same thing.

It literally does not say that. What do you want them to do? Leave out all the weird or suspicious stuff so that some other commenter will swing by and complain that they didn't analyze it?

The conclusion of their report is repeated several times; no evidence of OTB cheating.

> Leave out all the weird or suspicious stuff so that some other commenter will swing by and complain that they didn't analyze it?

I don't think any serious commenters are going to complain about the absence of stereotypes about "the greats" unbacked by statistical analysis. That is what is bad. The actual analysis of anomalously fast progress at equivalent ages is fine.

The exception the proves the rule?

One of the stupidest phrases vert.

Almost by definition the exception disproves the rule.

There’s literally no logical sense in which the exception can prove the rule unless the rule is not really a rule but more of a suggestion.

Yeah it's pretty much exclusively used incorrectly. The original meaning was that an exception to a rule proves that such a rule exists. For example, "no parking on Sunday" is an exception that implies that parking on any day except Sunday is okay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exception_that_proves_the_rule

It honestly doesn't bother me as much as when people incorrectly say "begs the question" when they mean "raises the question" but I think we're long past the point of us ever correcting any of these.

One note about parking - normally all actions (incl. parking) are allowed, unless they are explicitly forbidden. Lack of any other rules/guidance implies the parking is allowed.

That’s a fairly generic statement, have you confirmed that rule to be true across every city/state/country across the globe?