> Is the assumption that once Russia mobilises its population, they'll all go "sir, yes, sir" and go storm Ukraine?

The punishment for recruitment evasion is 3 to 6 years of prison (as I was told). Considering Russia has moved the same way as all "civilized" states towards total surveillance and profitable imprisonment, this is very much real.

Neither Russia, nor any other country may nuke the ukrainian territory - it is too valuable and defeats the purpose of the whole operation.

PS: I urge you to research what the word "Ukraine" means.