Re:John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has ra...
by pixelpoet on Friday August 19, 2022 @06:51PM
(#32527016)
While we have the mighty gwern on the line: do you believe we'll have AGI in <= 10 years?
Re:John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has ra...
by telotortium on Friday August 19, 2022 @07:12PM
(#32527211)
Obviously yes: https://twitter.com/robbensinger/status/1541228487205236736
Re:John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has ra...
by trention on Friday August 19, 2022 @06:54PM
(#32527040)
That scaling will eventually hit a wall. What was it about nerds and S-curves?
Re:John Carmack's new AGI company, Keen Technologies, has ra...
by dinosaurdynasty on Friday August 19, 2022 @07:18PM
(#32527267)
Sure, most everything does.
The question is if it hits that wall before or after human-level (and/or dangerous) capabilities.
It may not be immediately clear, but it is nevertheless unfortunately clear from RL papers which provide adequate sample-size or compute ranges that RL appears to follow scaling laws (just like everywhere else anyone bothers to test). Yeah, they just get better the same way that regular ol' self-supervised or supervised Transformers do. Sorry if you were counting on 'RL doesn't work' for safety or anything.
If you don't believe the basic existence proofs of things like OA5 or AlphaStar, which work only because things like larger batch sizes or more diverse agent populations magically make notoriously-unreliable archs work, you can look at Jones's beautiful AlphaZero scaling laws (plural) work https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.03113 , or browse through relevant papers https://www.reddit.com/r/mlscaling/search?q=flair%3ARL&restr... https://www.gwern.net/notes/Scaling#ziegler-et-al-2019-paper Or GPT-f. Then you have stuff like Gato continuing to show scaling even in the Decision Transformer framework. Or consider instances of plugging pretrained models into RL agents, like SayCan-PaLM most recently.