Re:The Mystery of the Frog Riddle
by yccs27 on Wednesday August 17, 2022 @07:42AM
(#32494917)
What problems like this (and the Monty Hall one) really illustrate is that a piece of information like "one of the frogs is male" or "there is a goat behind this door" is not independent of how you got it. You have to account for the different probabilities of getting that info in every scenario.
The important missing clue in this riddle is: When exactly does a male frog croak? What are the probabilities? The solution proposed in the video assumes that the probability of hearing a croak is the same as long as at least one of the frogs is male. But it should be twice as likely to hear a croak from two male frogs, which increases the posterior probability of two males and decreases your chances of survival to 1/2.
Re:The Mystery of the Frog Riddle
by aaron695 on Wednesday August 17, 2022 @08:22AM
(#32495288)
This is wrong. I did a Monte Carlo
The information they are missing is two male frogs croak twice as much
It's 50% the 2 frogs are male.
I throw out times no one croaks and times you hear more than one croak. I throw out times it's not two frogs.
I assume you can't hear/tell a female croak since it's only the male that's 'distinctive'.
What I don't find intuitive is I thought it would be a little less than 50% since two males are more likely to croak twice which voids the scenario.
But who cares, in practice you'll never be doing probabilities, life is to complex to do important things from formular, just Monte Carlo it, aka fuzzing for statisticians.
The important missing clue in this riddle is: When exactly does a male frog croak? What are the probabilities? The solution proposed in the video assumes that the probability of hearing a croak is the same as long as at least one of the frogs is male. But it should be twice as likely to hear a croak from two male frogs, which increases the posterior probability of two males and decreases your chances of survival to 1/2.
Kind of like saying the outcome is 50/50 because "it happens or it doesn't".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go3xtDdsNQM
The information they are missing is two male frogs croak twice as much
It's 50% the 2 frogs are male.
I throw out times no one croaks and times you hear more than one croak. I throw out times it's not two frogs.
I assume you can't hear/tell a female croak since it's only the male that's 'distinctive'.
What I don't find intuitive is I thought it would be a little less than 50% since two males are more likely to croak twice which voids the scenario.
But who cares, in practice you'll never be doing probabilities, life is to complex to do important things from formular, just Monte Carlo it, aka fuzzing for statisticians.