Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by jonnycomputer on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @10:27AM
(#32412553)
Of course it goes down. Take a look at this chart, expand to 10y or max; inflation was about -0.75% in early 2020. In fact, it went into negative territory many times in the last decade. Prices go down during recessions, particularly.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mo...
OTOH, the Fed has goal of maintaining a 2% inflation target; so in the long run you can expect it to go up. For many many years before the pandemic, it failed to achieve that goal. Inflation was too low; which means job growth, wage growth, and gdp was below potential.
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by RC_ITR on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @12:38PM
(#32414813)
Prices are an index and very rarely is the index not at an ath. Even in The periods you mentioned, the index was only off ath for a month or 3 and that’s mostly noise from
Energy prices, so no it never reached a new equilibrium below where it was (that would be disastrous)
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by honkkong420 on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @10:58AM
(#32413103)
But our unemployment rates were so low in 2019, how could they have been lower with higher inflation?
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by celtain on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @11:45AM
(#32413947)
We have seen unemployment fall slightly below 2019 levels, but the more significant result of greater demand stimulation would have been reaching those levels of unemployment much faster, rather than taking a decade to recover from the great recession.
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by honkkong420 on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @01:33PM
(#32415669)
That seems to be entirely explained by labor force participation. Note the skyrocketing amounts of people with more than one job
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by jonnycomputer on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @11:50AM
(#32414025)
high employment and higher inflation can go hand in hand, actually, just high unemployment and deflation can (in a recession).
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by honkkong420 on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @01:34PM
(#32415683)
Yeah that’s my point, inflation rates don’t really influence unemployment rates except at the margin
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by meragrin_ on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @10:16AM
(#32412348)
This is the one thing which pisses me off when corporate brass justify not adjusting pay because "inflation is just transitory".
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by sangnoir on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @11:26AM
(#32413560)
Do you mean prices, perhaps? Inflation is a derivative and can go down to zero with prices being unchanged
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by RC_ITR on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @12:42PM
(#32414874)
Do you mean the inflation rate?
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by werdnapk on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @10:19AM
(#32412398)
Deflation can occur; it's rare, but it's not a never scenario.
Re:U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%
by RC_ITR on Wednesday August 10, 2022 @12:41PM
(#32414858)
It has never occurred for more than a few months in The past 50 years and has never returned to a new equilibrium below where it was.
This is also a data resolution problem. Sure we measure in months, but is that a reasonable resolution? Why not days? Years? Etc.
Best case scenario is it stops growing.