I'm curious how he modeled it. Do actual results follow a bell curve with prior polling as the median and some well-known standard deviation? If so, it would explain why a 10% lead in the polls is considered nearly insurmountable in a given state. I know that if someone is polling at 60-40 in terms of voters, their odds of winning the state are much higher. I've heard 90% thrown out, but don't have any hard data.

Perhaps a better Monte Carlo would use polling data and that.