mattmaroon

In the way that that will make you click the link.

Right, the thing is, for most tasks, there’s a finish line. Once a model can do a given task right, future improvements may be of little to no benefit beyond cost reduction.

Right now OpenAI and Claude (and maybe Gemini) are over the finish line with reasonable prices for many tasks whereas the rest are still in the race.

But what happens when the open weight models cross the line and it just comes down to price?

I do a similar thing with 6.1 Sol. I find it pretty comparable to Opus 5.5 in many ways.

“If owning a McDonald’s is so good, why sell franchises?”

At least for now, everything they produce is yours to do with as you please. Just ask them for it. I’ve asked Claude to teach my Hermes agent one skill after another.

Data portability is essentially infinite with AI.

And it had a happy ending!

We have that now in several systems, maybe most, it just isn’t AI. If your water has lead in it, you’ve got one highly incompetent local government to remediate it. If your health care goes out of network with the only hospital system in your small city or town and you have a heart attack you’re fucked. If one security software pushes a bug to production the airlines shut down. Etc.

Single points of failure are a fact of life.

AI offers relative democratization. What’s going on with model competition is giving us more choice, not less.

This is the language of someone who is blind to the reality of actual war. I’m sorry, you don’t have PTSD because computers got good at theoretical math problems, and part of the reason half our population looks down on elites is they talk like this to each people who got hit by an IED in Fallujah.

The agents only have to be better than we are and we’re not very good. Same argument as self-driving.

Don’t fear change.

Eh, Apple spent years suing Samsung while also buying parts from them for their products. You can be a partner and an enemy at the same time at the high levels of the game.

Well, I should mention I'm using it for business automation, not coding. But yes, it is great and cheap.

Fair point. But Meta also has a vested interest in keeping terms of service strong, so it wouldn’t really do for them to violate Anthropic’s and then go to court over it. Meta would then be in a lose-lose scenario, all over an open weight model that is a money sink to begin with.

In the US at least, freedom of religion does grant some exceptions. The Amish do not participate in Social Security and Medicare, for instance, but I cannot opt out. I’m not sure how it works other places.

I’m not saying I endorse this, but that is why.

Horseshit sucks and being around those animals in a city sucks so it’s an easy sell.

There’s nothing more cruel about halal slaughter, as long as they stun (which most do), than the common method.

I assume they’re doing it without distilling since they’re within reach of lawsuits, so they’re basically handicapped by ethics, which has to feel unusual for Meta.

By both worlds I guess I assumed that the only reason people use Firefox is that it isn’t tied to an advertising company that wants to enshittify the internet at the expense of my user experience because I saw nothing else about Firefox that I liked better than Chrome.

AI doesn’t make mistakes like that generally, I’ve almost never seen the grammar butchery from them I’ve seen from even major publications in recent years. I wish they’d let AI copy edit.

I’m running 6.1 sol as my main driver on Hermes these days. It does so much for so little cost.

They do, just not in that sentence. You must really hate sales ads.

Oh great, now Siri can fail to help me in any room in my house!

I tried for a year to use it before just switching to Brave and getting the best of both worlds.

I agree with you about the greatest invention of all time part, the rest is where my crystal ball gets hazy.

Well, unlike the economy I can’t grow in size rapidly. (And if I did I’d just have another major problem.)

Induced demand and limitless cheap human-quality labor can possibly grow the pie very fast, though even then, you start running into the earth’s finite resources eventually. But it is possible that they are worth much more than $2 trillion long before that.

But that is why I said you can’t just safely assume 15x multiples to continue.

That’s a risk for sure.

That’s a good question that I assume will be cleared up in the prospectus, but I have to assume that enough of it is just cash coming in that they and OpenAI are likely the fastest growing companies of all time, or at least very high up the list.

$2 trillion is a lot of money and certainly doesn’t seem a safe bet at that price. But also, their revenue went from <$0 in 2024 to $4b in 2025 to what will likely be >15x that in 2026. Has anything ever grown that fast before?

If you carry that forward even one year, and I’m not saying you certainly can, they’re outselling NVIDIA.

I get it, there are risks, scalability issues, low cost competitors, etc. $2 trillion is a big number, but it’s tiny compared to all human payroll.

I’m not buying it either but I dont think anyone who does failed an IQ test.

Good. I hope my competitors never figure out how useful this is.

Using the banking system instead of crypto.

Forks don’t.