If Ukraine hadn't been slowly de facto integrating into NATO (NATO weapons, NATO training, and even joint military exercises with NATO, on Ukrainian soil), it would have been much harder for Putin to justify the extreme costs this invasion is having on his economy.
They’re absorbing Belarus soon, was Belarus getting too cozy with NATO?
They made it clear that if there is any attempt at establishing a Chinese military base there, the US wouldn't put a military response off the table.
Instead, goaded on the by the oligarchs and Putin, they are fighting a losing war that will hurt tens or hundreds of thousands over the coming years. There is 0 chance NATO will back off. Of course, it will also empower Putin, which is what Putin and the Oligarchs actually want. Russia fell right into their trap, and thinks they are being helped empowered.
Of course Russia would have been better off if they (and NATO) had been willing to negotiate.
Russia is not "goaded on" by Putin, it is directly controlled. They also don't care too much about the Ukrainians they are killing or hurting.
If Ukraine backs off, there's not much NATO can do about it - except perhaps start working on regime change in Ukraine.
> Of course, it will also empower Putin, which is what Putin and the Oligarchs actually want. Russia fell right into their trap, and thinks they are being helped empowered.
I don't unbeatable what these words are supposed to mean.
If you don’t hold that assumption, like myself, then your viewpoint seems absurd
So, Ukraine has a choice: seek to join NATO knowing that will eventually lead to conflict with Russia, but hoping you can beat them. Or, seek to attain a neutral status, where they can forge their own path between NATO and Russia, maybe on a model similar to Finland.
The option of peacefully joining NATO simply doesn't exist. Empires will never willingly allow anything like that, if they have any semblance of power to prevent it.
Note that the Baltic countries, who also share a land border with Russia, joined NATO at a time when Russia was so weak it could simply not do anything about it.
Who asked them?
I don’t see how an ‘if’ Ukraine joined nato and a ‘maybe’ it might give NATO an advantage over Russia is better then war now. I don’t see how something that is a known horror for all involved, is better than something that ‘could be’ worse maybe one day. The only unknown currently is how much more horrific it will become and how long it will go for. Generations of hatred have been sown already.
There was definitely ways to appease each side prior to war, eg integrating Russia’s economy and energy grid further into Europe and the west. This was a terrible failure of diplomacy that built up over decades.
Now that all involved are getting more experienced at warfare it will just promote deadlier warfare, ai controlled weapons etc etc. I’m completely losing faith in humanity, it unbelievable sad what’s happening.
Assuming we didn't get there though, I think the only part of the calculation that you are missing is that the war is not a horror for Putin and his entourage, and neither for NATO leaders. It is a horror for the people of Ukraine, their army, and the Russian soldiers who actually have to fight it. The seeds of hatred will also prove to be a horror for the ordinary Russians who will suffer greatly in retaliation.
Unfortunately, their leaders and ours will have probably been long dead after content, peaceful lives, uncaring of the harm they have caused.