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Re:How the US Air Force Ditched the Average and Saved Lives by melling on Saturday July 02, 2022 @07:08AM (#31958009)
That’s because all probabilities are conditional, and people don’t consider that.

These two things helped me to understand probability better.

The Signal and the Noise:

https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-bu...

The videos for Harvard Statistics 110:

https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/stat110/home

Re:How the US Air Force Ditched the Average and Saved Lives by lawrenceyan on Saturday July 02, 2022 @12:44PM (#31960505)
This is a great quote. I might have to steal this.