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A comment on Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Globalstar Falcon 9 launch. Parent comment

Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by dotancohen on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @08:44AM (#31823188)
A very-low earth orbit satellite in a 55 degree inclination will have a few hours of passing over Ukraine every hour and a half, then a few hours of not passing over at all. They can play with the apoapsis to change the dwell time a bit, but even four satellites will have significant coverage problems. Moreso if all were launched simultaneously, as orbit raising and lowering will be expensive in terms of delta V and it will take significant time to spread them all out. Even moreso if they are based on the ion thruster Starlink bus.

This might be a good mission for the SR-71, had it still been flying. It could round trip out of Mildenhall in two hours, that's probably about half a million dollars per flight. So this launch could have conservatively bought 600 SR-71 flights, which can be timed as per demand and not when the satellites just happen to fly overhead. And the belligerents know when the satellites are flying overhead, they have far less warning with the SR-71.

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by nradov on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @09:46AM (#31823886)
NATO is already operating reconnaissance and EW flights just outside of Ukrainian airspace. The SR-71 wouldn't be survivable against the latest generation of Russian air defense systems. Even when it was still operational, the Air Force quickly stopped flying over Soviet territory because the risk of being shot down was too high. Instead they would fly at the edge of Soviet airspace and look in with powerful sensors.
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by tomatotomato37 on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @03:59PM (#31828430)
Not even really the latest, the high speed flight of the SR-71 was generally detectable enough that they could coordinate a fleet of MiG-25 interceptors basically on a timer to be in the vincinity of its flight path long enough for a radar lock. The resources expended to coordinate and fly such an intercept weren't really worth it for anything more than posturing, but it worked well enough to dissuade the US from doing any actual attempts to breach their airspace
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by arcticfox on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @08:50AM (#31823264)
Are you suggesting sending NATO pilots over Ukraine? That seems unwise.
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by Rebelgecko on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @11:13AM (#31824871)
The good news is that the Fortes[1][2] can see well into the theater without actually flying over the battlefield, and even if something does happen to the aircraft the pilots are thousands of miles away

[1]: https://www.itamilradar.com/2022/03/02/forte-is-back/

[2]: https://www.reddit.com/r/NonCredibleDefense/comments/szw9xm/...

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by dotancohen on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @09:40AM (#31823814)
I see your point.

Maybe some unmanned SR-71 successor would be better, especially if it could suborbitally pass over Ukraine above the Karman line. But even that might be poking the bear.

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by nradov on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @09:54AM (#31823980)
The Space Shuttle was originally designed partially as a manned SR-71 successor. It had the capability to launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base into a polar orbit, make a single reconnaissance pass over the USSR, and then immediately land to deliver the imagery. But it was never actually used in that mode.
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by dotancohen on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @10:41AM (#31824471)
Yes, but the STS could not overfly any areas outside a very specific, narrow path.

And the flight did not have to be recon. Payload bay doors could be opened very shortly after ET sep.

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by meepmorp on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @09:24AM (#31823650)
Why not? Russia ain't gonna do shit but whine and make empty threats.
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by neuronic on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @09:50AM (#31823938)
The stakes of the typical "fuck around and find out" nonsense are out of bounds here, really.

It doesn't matter how incapable Russia is at completing their inhumane mission in Ukraine, they are very much capable of launching a number of unstoppable ICBMs with enough nuclear warheads carried along the ride to make every last cockroach in the deep gutters of the most remote and forgotten town in Montana squeal in agony.

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by meepmorp on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @10:02AM (#31824058)
This is a silly take. They're not going to start a nuclear war, and especially for something as small as NATO pilots over Ukraine.

I swear, everyone's wits leave them when the Russians make nuclear threats. This is standard bully behavior, stop caving to it every time.

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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by nradov on Tuesday June 21, 2022 @01:36PM (#31826791)
Russia isn't going to start a nuclear war for a NATO flight over Ukraine. But they will try to shoot it down, and might succeed. At that point NATO might retaliate against air defense sites, and then the conflict escalates.
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Re:Space-Track confirms presence of 4 secret payloads on Glo... by meepmorp on Wednesday June 22, 2022 @04:51PM (#31841709)
Even direct fighting between NATO forces and Russia isn't likely to escalate to a nuclear exchange. It's unlikely that NATO would invade or occupy (actual, not recently annexed) Russian territory, so it poses little existential risk to Russia or her government.

The nukes will be a serious issue when the fall of Russia is imminent.

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