I believe it's overvalued because most folks who are new to investing are making decisions based on hype and tweets, and believe people who will still tweet "HODL" the day of the big crash where they'll try to sell everything they have, hoping someone will buy the final dip... Fear everywhere.

I wish it was still a niche thing that nerds talk about in their circles, with very few miners using small PCs, as it was intended, where you could buy a coffee with it in the nerdiest bar of Paris even though it was complicated to do, and people were ok with giving it or losing all because they hadn't put all their savings into it. And they were no survivor bias douchebags yelling about how they bought a lambo with it, making late adopters think they could too when the party was already over. Then came NFTs which made it even worse.

>believe people who will still tweet "HODL" the day of the big crash where they'll try to sell everything they have, hoping someone will buy the final dip.

Those people buying the final dip are shorts closing a part of their position ;)

I think the reason it’s so hard to place is that there are no fundamentals. It’s all speculation and “greater fool” theory. Almost no one thinks bitcoin will actually be used as a serious currency but they do think someone else will buy it for more than they did under the assumption it could be sold again for even more.

So as soon as it moves in one direction, it rockets away as everyone tries not to be the last fool.

The value at minimum in my opinion has to be what it costs to mine each coin. This makes the most sense to me, who would sell it below the cost? Silly. When people were raving about a crash a few years back (was it 2018?) I said, unless it costs less to buy than to mine, I don't see it, and sure enough it bounced back then.

Anything above that amount is either speculation or perceived value in a specific coins ecosystem. I still hold that Ethereum should be worth way more than bitcoin given how much richer its ecosystem is.

Stuff is sold below cost all the time. Often for very good reason, often because there is no other option than to limit the losses.

In any case, hashprice is plummeting, and this system is self correcting, as the price to mine is extremely elastic.

> The value at minimum in my opinion has to be what it costs to mine each coin.

Why so? If it costs me 100k to make a ball of lint, does the cost to make give that lint a minimum value of 100k?

Or if I mined bitcoon for $X, the whole market is crashing and I have a way out that let's me recoup 85% of $X instead of losing everything why wouldn't anyone take that?

I am merely proposing a ballpark ideal price for a coin, to justify it being 100k if you will, does that make sense? I think I didn't word it rightly.

Honestly, crypto might just be a measure of excess liquidity in the financial system. If people could get their guaranteed 7% returns in bonds, that might suffice for enough folks. Central banking policy has vacuumed up the safe asset classes during quantitative easing, pushing investors to riskier asset classes for returns. QT will change that and the market is responding appropriately.

Reading your sentences in reverse order was entertaining

You can't. You trade a crypto coin on the market and you have a price.

The price is hugely affected by how many people in the whole world believe it's a decent currency.

Accurate estimation is a contradiction.