I’m not claiming your conclusion is incorrect, but predator-prey systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lotka–Volterra_equations) can have long stretches of population decrease. A measured decrease, even a huge one lasting decades, need not be a a long term decline.

Thank you for this. It is a reminder for me to think more long term than just my short life so far.

Grew up in Southeast Virginia in the 60's. Fireflies galore. June bugs also. Not anymore - haven't seen them in 40 years. Seems to me it coincided with aerial spraying for mosquitos in the area. There are still plenty of mosquitos however:)

The main predator is likely cars in this case. Those numbers won't be decreasing, and bug numbers likely won't be bouncing back

I was under the impression the main predator was insecticides.

This isn’t a simple two-species system. If insect population collapse were to cause a human population collapse, I think the number of cars (and wind turbines, and insecticides) would follow, possibly early enough to prevent full extinction of insects.

The point was that the population is declining, not that it is long term.

The title of this article may make it seem so, but IMHO, it is incorrect, and the main message of the article is

One in three firefly species in North America may be at risk of extinction, according to a study by the Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation.

The title of that paper (https://xerces.org/press/firefly-species-at-risk) is “One in Three North American Firefly Species Assessed May Be at Risk of Extinction”, so I think that’s not a misinterpretation from my side.

Funny, the last two summers here at my rural place in southern Ontario (basically the midwest) there's been so many fireflies. We used to have them here and there, but never like this.

Anecdota, but.

Seeing a lot of them this spring here in the midwest US as well.

Montreal island subburbs, so many of them every summer.

I haven’t seen a firefly since I was a kid. We used to catch and release them using glass jars.

so it's your fault.

Haha. Catch and release! (And that was one or two amongst tens or hundreds.) Although probably relatively harmless, I wouldn't do it now.

by some authors, this decline is 3 orders of magnitude faster than what is inferred from fossil records of the last extinction event. global warming might increase that by an additional 2 orders of magnitude.

the good news is that it can still be partially reversed, if humanity acts quickly.

If the partial reversal is contingent on humans acting quickly, I'm not sure that is good news.

Humans act extremely quickly - in geological terms. That's part of the problem, of course. Unfortunately, it stands to reason that OP meant quickly in human terms.

let's say that this topic making it to the front page of HN is good start.

> the good news is that it can still be partially reversed, if humanity acts quickly.

So we're fucked then.

Experienced the same as a kid and can’t remember the last one I’ve seen.

Anecdote but 2020 summer (covid summer) there were tons of fireflies in Boston. A lot more so than normal. I don't know how it was 10+ years ago though...

I've been saying this for a while. I remember so many as a child, so it's only anecdotal, but there has been a very noticeable decline.