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Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @04:47PM (#31552727)
If you sold futures for your outputs and didn’t buy futures for your inputs, the results are on you. These are the kind of complaints you get from people who make market bets and end up wrong. You can use futures like insurance to insulate yourself from market fluctuations or you can use them like a casino.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by deamanto on Sunday May 29, 2022 @07:40PM (#31553959)
I actually have a very specific story on this one from a friend.

In Australia, there's this stereotype of the "hard working Aussie battler farmer" and that we should all support our farmers. My friend's family business was one of these growing a type of nut. It was common for neighbouring farmers to make a good living selling their produce and using it for their own purposes and expect the government to bail them out with something like a tax break.

My friend's business wanted to prepare for water shortages and spent a huge amount of money setting up a dam or storage system of sorts. Lo and behold, a drought came some time after and they were prepared. A lot of other businesses did not prepare for this and instead spent it on other things. My friend mentioned to me that he has no sympathy for those types of people.

Disclaimer: This is a generic statement, I did not pry into the story and there could be a multitude of reasons why one didn't/couldn't prepare for such a thing

Re:Food security and the coming storm by somedangedname on Sunday May 29, 2022 @09:39PM (#31554683)
Yep. I'm from a region that grew sugarcane historically but is moving to tree crops like nuts.

Local 'big name' family is voracious in their consumption of government grants. They're not struggling by any means but they've got application writing down to a fine science.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by Sylveste on Monday May 30, 2022 @01:24AM (#31555721)
Grants are for claiming. Why leave money on the table? Your competitors won't.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by biztos on Sunday May 29, 2022 @09:44PM (#31554721)
> expect the government to bail them out

…

> A lot of other businesses did not prepare for this

So did the government bail them out?

Re:Food security and the coming storm by deamanto on Tuesday May 31, 2022 @07:28PM (#31576178)
I didn't follow up with them on that. But the discussion was initially sparked because we were watching the news and the story was about how hard the farmers are doing due to the drought and were looking for government assistance.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by DarylZero on Sunday May 29, 2022 @06:15PM (#31553411)
You're spinning it like a matter of choice, but I would doubt that it is.

The farmers probably can't sell their product any other way than as futures; and can't buy energy any other way than at the current market price.

That would mean the actual choice involved is just the choice to go into the farming business. Not exactly fair to compare that to casino betting.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @06:54PM (#31553686)
Untrue on both counts. Source: generational small farmer in exile.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by mensetmanusman on Sunday May 29, 2022 @06:54PM (#31553688)
Does that mean this market is missing an entity that helps farmers buy energy futures?
Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @07:21PM (#31553835)
It isn’t though this person is just guessing incorrectly that it does not exist. Like any business buying supplies, farmers can buy things ahead of time at fixed prices.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by vkou on Sunday May 29, 2022 @06:29PM (#31553508)
In theory, you are correct.

In practice, hedging for increases in fuel prices means buying something like oil futures.

Which requires you to be at terminal at some port city 6 months down the line to physically collect the oil/gasoline/whatever that you bought. And then store it for the months before you use it.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @06:52PM (#31553678)
It really doesn’t, you don’t buy fuel on the futures market, you buy it locally from the coop or whatever local purveyor you use for future delivery, hundreds of gallons at a time.

The same for your other inputs, you have contacts to buy them well into the future, you don’t just pay the market rate when you need it.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by WalterBright on Sunday May 29, 2022 @09:36PM (#31554674)
Commodities futures are just like gold based money. The gold itself wasn't traded, it sat locked in a vault somewhere. People traded receipts for the gold. I.e. that's what banknotes literally used to be.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @09:51PM (#31554756)
Eh, while there is quite a lot of speculation-only trading, unless you're dealing with cash-settled futures, if you forget to close out your position you'll be expected to, say, deliver or take delivery on 5000 bushels of corn.

Commodities futures are heavily used to arrange actual exchange of goods and aren't abstractions but real contracts.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by simtel20 on Sunday May 29, 2022 @10:28PM (#31554947)
That is true right up until the day the contract comes due. Then you need to pick up your oil, pork, OJ, etc. at the time and place specified in the contract. If you holds the contract at that point in time, you are responsible for picking it up at the place in space.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by rfrey on Monday May 30, 2022 @12:13AM (#31555413)
Why? Wouldn't a farmer just buy the futures contract (or an option on it), then liquidate and use the profit to offset the loss on the spot purchase? I was under the impression that hedgers never take delivery.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by vkou on Monday May 30, 2022 @04:42PM (#31563423)
Hedges who sit in an office at Wall street never take delivery.

If you're a person who actually needs the future, you need to take delivery. This makes sense on an industrial mega-farm scale, but doesn't make sense at the private-farm scale.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by gruez on Sunday May 29, 2022 @08:07PM (#31554149)
Why can't you buy cash settled futures and/or liquidate before due for delivery?
Re:Food security and the coming storm by RustyConsul on Sunday May 29, 2022 @08:03PM (#31554115)
that was my initial thought as well, but you are limited by the availability of financial instruments as you move up the chain to inputs. Outputs are easy to craft instruments around, but inputs are what a business is.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @08:12PM (#31554178)
Instead of financial instruments they are actual contracts for purchasing a commodity in the future from a local purveyor.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by simtel20 on Sunday May 29, 2022 @10:25PM (#31554931)
Without a futures market, you don't get futures, you get forwards, don't you? Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.
Re:Food security and the coming storm by c_o_n_v_e_x on Sunday May 29, 2022 @11:22PM (#31555184)
>Without a futures market, you don't get futures, you get forwards, don't you? Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

Correct. You have an over the counter market with different derivatives.

> Forwards don't have enforcement for when the seller goes bankrupt, which leaves the buyer out any money paid in the forward contract and needing to find another supply at market price. That's my understanding, at least.

You're referring to counter party risk. A futures exchange seeks to eliminate this type of risk with daily settlement of positions, margins, etc.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by colechristensen on Sunday May 29, 2022 @10:48PM (#31555043)
Calling them forwards implies that they are tradable securities.

I’m talking about going to the local farmers coop and purchasing next years fertilizer, fuel, etc. months in advance for a set price to be paid and delivered in the future.

When you sell your outputs it’s a good idea to buy your inputs at the same time. The outputs are often exchange traded commodities, the inputs are often contract purchases with local dealers although you can also hedge with appropriate exchange traded commodities.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by c_o_n_v_e_x on Sunday May 29, 2022 @11:30PM (#31555221)
There are futures to hedge inputs, especially for farming:

- Diesel for tractors

- Fertilizers

- The weather itself

- interest rates

- real estate

AFAIK the only inputs without derivatives are labor cost and pesticides.

Re:Food security and the coming storm by RustyConsul on Tuesday May 31, 2022 @03:33PM (#31573872)
A.) you are expecting farmers to be quants, B.) There are 10000 more inputs to farming than what you described. Labor being a major one.

Financier: "Well Jim, I know you were focused on digging the irrigation for your farm but with 'Free Money' in the economy, valuations for real estate and other commodities were going to rise. The Delta's on your futures were all out of wack!" Jim: "What's a delta?"