> do not invest money you need within 5-10 years and do not make rash decisions; it is better to ride this train down and then hopefully back up than jump randomly.
Gaming the market successfully requires a ton of skill and knowledge, and even then you are not guaranteed success.
Most people are better off focusing on asset-class diversification (i.e. spreading money across many different kinds of asset classes - i.e. physical assets, securities, commodities, cash, etc) than playing just the stock market.
And even when playing the stock market, most people are better off focusing on "time-in-the-market" vs "timing the market".
On the contrary, for the past 20+ years the general advice has been to specifically aim for the alpha of zero ("just use index funds"), not for a positive alpha ("don't try to beat the market", etc.).
> No investor aims for a negative alpha, regardless of the economic climate.
Factors other than alpha are way more important for most people. Many retirees put a high value on low volatility or stability of dividends and are perfectly OK with getting a small negative alpha as part of the package.
Original hedge funds (before they joined a cutthroat trading jungle) set up with a similar goal in mind: a small negative alpha, but protected against the loss of the principal. And had plenty of wealthy investors who were happy with this deal.
Alpha becomes the critical parameter to optimize for when actively investing in times of turmoil (then a negative total return on a positive alpha on the down leg is a success). But few people actually do that, so few care about alpha.
The counter argument to this is that the above approach absolutely requires an iron discipline. And without experience non-professionals are prone to making very costly mistakes (e.g., invest on feelings, double down inappropriately, etc.). So, a general audience advice is usually: do not invest money you need within 5-10 years and do not make rash decisions; it is better to ride this train down and then hopefully back up than jump randomly. And diversify (across countries, economies, asset classes, etc.).
Just my 2c; not an investment advice!