He borrowed $12.5B with Tesla shares as collateral when this condition is triggered he has to pay the loan back in advance. " Share Price Event: The VWAP of the Shares on the Exchange on any day is below 40% of its official closing price on the Funding Date" [0]

I think Tesla is creeping closer to this limit, but whether that is the actual reason... I don't know.

[0] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000110465922...

Maybe he just decided to expose the real amount of bots on Twitter and this is the only way it could actualy end in something accurate and something most people will take as a fact?

I really don't think he needs market manipulation at all. He has much easier, much faster and much safer ways to make orders of magnitude more money. I don't think going to prison is a part of his plan to go to Mars.

> Maybe he just decided to expose the real amount of bots on Twitter and this is the only way it could actualy end in something accurate and something most people will take as a fact?

This hypothesis lacks any credibility given that, according to Bloomberg's article, "The [merger] contract gives Twitter the right to force [Elon Musk] to close, and put up the $27.5 billion of equity 1 that he has committed to the deal, as long as his debt financing is available."

No one in their right mind signs a contract binding them to pay up billions just to check how many active users does a social media service have.

In the hypothetical where that's what he wanted to do, maybe he's hoping (or even knows based on conversations) that one or more of the companies that agreed to finance his debt will say "sorry not any more, now that Musk has tweeted about a bots problem"?

Or are those partners as legally bound to providing him with the loans as he is to buying Twitter?

> In the hypothetical where that's what he wanted to do, maybe he's hoping (or even knows based on conversations) that one or more of the companies that agreed to finance his debt will say "sorry not any more, now that Musk has tweeted about a bots problem"?

Again, that makes absolutely no sense at all. Elon Musk signed a contract that either forced him to execute te merger at the expense of tens of billions of dollars, or at best a no-questions-asked escape hatch at a price tag of a billion euros.

Does anyone remotely sane would ever risk losing that sort of cash just to peek at the number of active users of a social network?

Ridiculous.

a) I agree, that's why I clearly framed it as suspending my opinion and talking about the hypothetical situation that others have suggested

b) And yet... given the reported clause that he is only on the hook for the 1B if he pulls out, but not if he loses his loans, then the only way I see to make the hypothetical even slightly feasible is if he knew he could get the financing to fall through in a way that he then wouldn't be on the hook for the $1B.

But yes I agree it's a highly unlikely motivation.

Why would he care about 1/250 of his wealth so much if he sees huge benefit in exposing bots on Twitter, perhaps even financial benefit much greater than $1B?

The Bloomberg article is incomplete, it doesn't mention that depending on how big the error is it could be considered securities fraud and that might automatically void the agreement.

> The Bloomberg article is incomplete, it doesn't mention that depending on how big the error is it could be considered securities fraud and that might automatically void the agreement.

No, not really. The Bloomberg article goes into great lengths about the implications of a lower than expected number of active users accounts, and points out in no unclear terms that the claim does not even hold if that number is significantly large, mentioning even half the number of users.

probably right, although it would make a nice premise for a book - going to prison as the best way to get to Mars.

Musk has no history of pumping and dumping or trying to make a quick buck like this so it would be completely out of form for him.

Musk is a straight forward person and has said on many occasions that he absolutely hates deception and strikes out at people that he thinks are deceiving him. Similarly he's not the type to lie either. He says what he thinks are the facts at the time he says them.

Can't decide if you're being sarcastic. But for the record, Musk is absolutely not straightforward at all, never has been. He's a troll, a bully, a right-wing nut, and a schemer.

It seems to be a common but fallacious inference nowadays that if you act like a jerk, then you must be telling the truth. "Truth tellers don't hold back" or some such nonsense. Jerkiness becomes proof of truth.