Re:Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
by belter on Monday May 16, 2022 @02:14PM
(#31401302)
"The pandemic’s true death toll"
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
Re:Not a single car was sold in Shanghai last month
by DiogenesKynikos on Monday May 16, 2022 @02:39PM
(#31401607)
I discussed The Economist's model a few comments up in this chain. It's a case of garbage-in, garbage-out.
When a black box ML model spits out a highly surprising answer that contradicts everything that is known, your response should be, "Why should I believe this model?"
Second, all these stories about China supposedly concealing deaths in the Shanghai outbreak came out just a few weeks after cases began to rise. Back then, there were only a handful of reported deaths. A few weeks later, there have been over 500 deaths (roughly in line with what one would expect, given the number of infections), and these claims of concealing deaths look pretty silly. Deaths always lag cases, and there can also be reporting delays.