It should be pointed out that casinos are only required to post odds for perfect play in games that have skill (e.g. poker, blackjack). Therefore, your poker odds would be based on the rake.

Black Jack is playing against the house and you can calculate perfect play. Poker is played against peers and perfect play does not exist. I think poker is a lot closer to speculating on crypto or stocks. Companies can disclose their transaction fees but it is impossible to calculate your expected return on investment. This is why there's almost always terms of service or disclosure to that extent

The best poker ai, as far as I’m aware based on things shown on hn, don’t consider past opponent behavior when making decisions. It’s effectively just a lookup table of hands and bets. Not perfect play but generally better than humans.

Better than humans at all levels, or your average player?

Are you suggesting that every Casino publishes an AI derived win rate for poker by law?

Perfect play, by definition, evens out. If everyone plays perfectly, then the ev should be zero (modified by position around the table). So it should balance to zero if everyone plays an equal number of hands from every position. The payoff would be adjusted by the rake.

But that is a wildly inaccurate assumption for any real table.

I still wouldn't call it perfect play because as soon as someone adopts a fixed strategy, the meta game shifts and it is no longer optimal.

If anything, the assumption is equal play, not perfect play

To your question above, the answer is better than all levels.

The meta idea is what I first thought. It’s hard to evaluate though. The ai does not adapt, but continues to beat pros, who are welcome to try and adapt.

I’m curious if there are some zany cheese strats against this kind of AI that work reliably but the answer may be no. The only really practical tool you have that could work is a crazy bluff, but I doubt that’s sustainable.

It doesn’t really matter if perfect play is considered though. Games should be rated assuming equal competence. It’s not misleading if in fact your turn out to be a worse player in a game of skill.

Perfect play would take into account the meta game as well.

My point is that if the casinos have to post odds, the only odds on a poker table are flat (any deviations from 0 coming from skill differences) minus any rake (with maybe some slight variation if the button doesn't go down an even number of times).

The fact that we cannot define perfect play is irrelevant.

You can see the exact rules of poker, and you can calculate exact win rates for any given strategy against the house since they play a fixed strategy.