I'm not sure if I understand you right but it was my impression that it was Russia waging war on Ukraine.
Ukrainian Army was trained by NATO instructors.
The only thing the Ukraine is providing really in this war is cannon fodder.
The way I look at it: in 2014 an otherwise peaceful Ukraine was invaded by its far larger and far stronger neighbor who entrenched themselves after robbing a bunch of territory on a pretext. Ukraine learned the hard way that they were underprepared, changed tactics and dramatically improved their military, while at the same time due to internal issues (mostly corruption) their larger neighbors saw the quality of their army decline.
Then, in recent times Russia decided that just having the Eastern part of Ukraine wasn't enough because those pesky Ukrainians were showing other countries in their sphere of influence (notably: Belarus, Georgia) that it was possible for a country to lift itself out of poverty by aligning with the West.
A complete lack of realistic estimates of operational readiness, underestimation of the Ukrainian resolve and a significant propaganda effort later the larger neighbor decided to finish what they started in 2014, which is roughly where we are today.
The West obviously stands a lot to gain from Ukraine not ending up in the same way as Belarus and so has a strong motivation to ensure that the new Russian imperialist effort fails. This, plus the fact that housing another 40 million refugees is not an option suffices to explain why the West is fairly eager to support Ukraine in its defense against Russia.
I think I'll bow out of the discussion here, whenever people start posting that video there isn't much left to talk about.
The narrative "big bad Russia against small peaceful Ukraine" is very simplistic, and only leads to support of escalation of conflict.
FWIW: Big bad Russia against small peaceful Ukraine is the reality far more than any alternative that you might want to supply.
It's still not sure if it will take Donbass. All the new captured parts of Ukraine are becoming new or join existing "People's Republics". I won't be surprised if after the end of campaign, there still will be independent republics and some shaky agreement that will be broken by Ukraine in the first week.
Even first plan was apparently to overthrow government, not to gain some land.
On other hand, the tactics of West/Zelensky is to destroy the East as much as possible, killing as many people as possible, destroying as much infrastructure as possible.
Please, think about what the actual fuck you're implying here.
Also, "cannon fodder"? Ukrainian army defends its people and its country. Russian soldiers are truly cannon fodder for Russian imperialists.
Ukraine is a key regional strategic partner that has undertaken significant efforts to reform its military and increase its interoperability with NATO.
Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $5.6 billion in total assistance to Ukraine, including security and non-security assistance. In 2021 alone we committed over $300 million in assistance to support Ukraine’s democratic and economic development, and over $650 million in security assistance.
https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-ukraine/
Ukraine is providing leadership, initiative, and massive amounts of weaponry on their own. Zelensky is asking western governments for more every week.
As for cannon fodder, civilian casualties are most likely much greater than military casualties at this point, and will likely get worse. Add to that the all the material destruction.
The cost in human lives would be far greater without western aid.
The way Ukraine fights is not in adherence to some NATO standards
Not standing idle while Russian Nazist regime genocides Ukrainians speaks great of NATO.
>Ukrainian Army was trained by NATO instructors.
and it shows. There is a reason people try to get to best schools. At the same time it is obvious from its performance that Russia hasn't gone to school at least for the last several decades.
Btw, the video of the mightiest Black Sea missile cruiser whose main purpose was to provide air-defense to the naval group being hit by Ukrainian missile https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uXT3kOZGNE&t=73s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um3_6NM6II4
Cruiser was hit indeed, but this footage is from completely different event.
But yeah, NATO is helping a lot.
There's no shortage of volunteers in Ukraine (and abroad), the forces are full, they're not accepting people even in support positions anymore. It's Russia who's providing the cannon fodder.
And before there's a whataboutism reply, I also do not agree with a lot of the US' aggression, and they and their leaders should be tried for war crimes.
I must have missed the bit where people started calling for Russia's destruction.
TBH it has surprised me that Ukraine hasn't carried out a lot more behind-the-lines attacks on Russian supply convoys; I'm aware of just one attack on a Russian fuel dump inside Russia. It's as if they are fearful that an attack on Russian territory might lead to retaliation. But isn't Russia already 'retaliating' as much as it can?
It's hard to do on Russian territory because of closed borders and anti-air. It's hard to do on captured eastern territories because there are too many ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking people live here, who are quite sympathetic to Russia. And there are rumors that FSB acquired the lists of all pro-ukrainian activists on these territories from SBU.
And no, Russia has not even start to retaliate.
Drones and missiles are flying in belgorod district but mostly countered by aa.
Your comment is ridiculously cynical and dehumanizing. It's disgusting to me how many people act like Ukrainian people have no agency by themselves and act like Russia was forced to do an invasion because they feel threatened by the west.
I disagree on several points. I do not think it is cynical at all. It is factual. It approaches reality for what it is and explains existing circumstances. Frankly, I do not think it is dehumanizing either. For better or worse, war and struggle is an integral part of human condition. If anything, what is happening makes average person realize what is real.
<< If not being able to set a government of a neighboring country and completely controlling it is a security issue for Russia then maybe they should be the ones to rethink their security policy.
Russia's leadership did and decided that since their personal figurehead was deposed in aftermath of Maidan eventually resulting in West-oriented leader, they might as well get directly involved. You may not like their decision, but they did exactly what you suggested.
<< That is a different ballpark than being under the control of west which implies that the west has somehow taken over Ukraine.
You are right. It is. Being under US umbrella ( or sphere of influence ) is, to me at least, better than being under Russia's. Prentending big powers don't 'influence' small players seems naive to me though. It is not being cynical. It is just recognizing pattern in human history of the past few thousand years.
West did not take Ukraine. Yet. In fact, part of the reason of the war is whose sphere of influence Ukraine will belong to.
<< It's disgusting to me how many people act like Ukrainian people have no agency by themselves and act like Russia was forced to do an invasion because they feel threatened by the west.
They absolutely do. However, right now that agency was limited to choosing who to align with. I am not sure what is disgusting about it. Can you elaborate? It is possible I am misunderstanding your argument.
Does the west threaten Russia's security? Do they have plans to invade Russia? Because that would be news to me.
It seems awfully defensive to me, especially coming from a country (Russia) that has been an aggressor for a long time, testing European defenses and readiness for a long time now. How often has the Russian air force intercepted European war planes?
Um.. I will respond in line with HN policy ( assume good faith ), but contingency plans do exist for various scenarios. Countries that do not have those are likely not going to be countries for long.
The west will mostly ally itself (as best it can) with champions of its values, whether they be Ukrainians, Russians, or any other ethnicity. This is the actual threat to the regime in Moscow.
Can you elaborate?
The beginnings of democracy in Ukraine demonstrates a roadmap for a potential Russian future. Democracy is a threat to the current regime in Moscow, but is not a threat to the Russian people.
I guess what I am saying is that you might be missing a forest for the trees. Democracy is a threat to Putin only in a sense that his control over Ukraine weakened with ouster of Yanukovych. He was fine with democracy as long as 'his' candidate won. Now, we can argue over whether Ukraine was a democracy, but I am not sure that is a good or even worthwhile argument to have.
It is. But this is a straw man. It’s always been. Ukraine hasn’t been seriously considered for NATO membership since 2008. Even its path to the EU was muddled at best.
Some effects of the war, e.g. Ukraine being flooded with Western weapons where it wasn’t before or Germany pivoting away from Russia, were unpredictable. But some, like the response in Finland and Sweden, or the Baltics’ remilitarisation, were.
Ukraine was and is falling under the control of the Ukrainians, and that remains the problem for Putin—not Russia.
Is your argument that Putin does not represent Russia? I am genuinely struggling a little with parsing this response. Can you elaborate a little?
Russia has been totally screwed by this invasion. Strategically, economically and geopolitically. Putin, however, has consolidated his personal power. He has also opened up east Ukraine's mineral resources to himself and his cronies.
So far as I can tell, Russia now controls some 40% of the worlds grain production which feeds much of Europe and North Africa, 70+% of neon production needed for semiconductors, the main source of nuclear material for French energy, the main source of fuel for German energy, and a great deal of raw materials and commodities besides, such as timber, palladium, etc.
They now also have avenues to trade in energy in means other than the dollar, something which was not possible before, and have experience against modern NATO weapons. They are, so far as I can tell, far from screwed.
Yes, to an extent. The harm to America was far less than what Russia's facing. And the benefits to Bush et al less than what Putin hopes to reap.
Bush could retire in peace. Putin can't. Risking his country's destruction for a few more years in power wouldn't make sense for an American President; it does for Putin.
As for Bush, Cheney, Obama, Pompeo et al.. I don't know if they can retire in peace exactly. US taxpayers fund their security detail; some more so than others if you read some recent reports, but the point remains.
I am willing to agree with you on that there is a difference of degree, but Iraq war did a lot of damage.. not to just US standing, but to US population's perception of how things are really done. The main difference is that some of that damage is not as... easily translated into viral imagery.
- Ukraine isn't under Western control
- Ukraine wasn't a security concern for Russia (didn't pursue NATO, was shunned by the west regarding military aid)
- Even if a country is a concern to another, it just isn't acceptable to go on a genocidal war and take all civilian casualties as collateral damage.
<< Even if a country is a concern to another, it just isn't acceptable to go on a genocidal war and take all civilian casualties as collateral damage.
Yes? And yet it is seems to be happening all the time. In a very practical sense, it is kinda hard to enforce the kind of protections needed not to offend certain sensibilities. There is a reason war is not something one should haphazardly go into. Don't get me wrong. I don't really want to discourage your moral outrage over how the world should be and how it apparently is.
You are saying it is not acceptable, but the world is on the verge of accepting it. It is only US pressure that might, and I am stressing might, change the outcome here.
Decided to edit after all:
<< Ukraine isn't under Western control
Qualified yes. What do you think this war is about? Freedom? Democracy? It is not a trick question. There are a lot of players, power centers and interested parties and they all have their agendas. For Poland, it is about having a buffer zone. For US, it is about who controls Ukraine. Up until recently it was controlled by Russia. That control slipped with ouster of Yanukovych ( and we can spend some time discussing to what extent western powers influenced that ouster ). I don't want to spend too much time on this though, because I am worried we do not share the same background when it comes to the region.
<< Ukraine wasn't a security concern for Russia (didn't pursue NATO, was shunned by the west regarding military aid)
Um.. citation and some dates may be needed to back up that claim. Still, for the sake of argument let us assume, none of the previous administrations did; not just US, but EU as well. Details are kind of messy.
Still, why would Ukraine be a security concern while their personal puppet was governing Ukraine? I am being serious here. It was the orange revolution and Georgia that changed the calculus. NATO membership became an issue after a west-looking leadership was elected.
Russia willfully engaged in a war of aggression to make Ukraine a vassal state in line with Belarus.
Sure, but I don’t think we’d make it policy to level Mexican cities in retribution. We’d at the very least start with sanctions.
But we didn’t. We made specific threats with specific remedies. And there were nukes.
Russia has invaded. It never made reasonable demands. (Asking for your puppet back in power isn’t reasonable. And there was zero pretext for Crimea.) The last time there were nukes in Ukraine, Kyiv gave them in exchange for Russian security guarantees.
[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur...
You mean for concrete matters of national chauvanism? It's amazing to still see people spreading this misinformation even after Russia accidentally broadcast its real motives to the world: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60562240
> Mr Akopov justifies the "virtual civil war" as "Russia restoring its historical fullness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together".
last time I checked it was RU ill-prepared, and poorly informed by its own IC about the state of their neighbor invading a sovereign European nation. I guess it must be horribly embarrassing when your celebrated army is taken down by a collective of farmers. There is no need for NATO proxy-war because if Ukraine continues its brave defense at this rate then NATO will beg to join Ukraine.
I do hope they capture and kill each and every Russian on Ukraine soil who even vaguely looks like their alliance is not clear, or who are found to carry condoms in their uniforms.
Considering the brazenness and utter dumbfuckery of Russia's brainwashed middle class populace cheering for Putin it is our duty in the West to defend Ukraine and preemptively strike them not only outside Russia (ME/Africa, etc) but to also go after them at home in Moscow. We should also take a close look at any Russian overseas who isn't loudly denouncing the Putler regime.
Supporting this retarded regime is spitting in everyone's faces, including the Russians.
The Chinese are mostly being neutral business people with regard to fentanyl, Americans are the ones seeking it out and importing it for resale. If China stopped selling fentanyl, the same dirtbags would still be importing it from a different supplier. If nobody sold fentanyl, they'd go back to importing Heroin from Mexico and SE Asia, though at least that'd be easier to target in customs and cause fewer OD deaths.
Re: the substance of your post.
>the Chinese are mostly neutral business people
This is naive. They remember what was done to them in the opium war, and there is a reason they manufacture the stuff.
>the same dirtbags…
When one person falls into folly, that person is a fool. When an entire society falls into folly, can you blame each man as a fool? We have an opium problem. It was fueled by large pharamceutical companies, but in 2022 there is also a geopolitical component.
Re: Russia
I have no doubt Russia would like to see America knocked on its rear. However my biggest qualm with the support of Ukraine is not “Russia right, America wrong,” but that this is a self-own. What we’ve done is force the world to make a decision, in which neutrality, once a holding pattern for the sake of good business, is now a knife’s edge slicing through one’s slipper. Moreover, the so-called “smartest people in the room,” by confiscating a substantial portion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, have forced a realignment in which a great portion of the world is now trading oil in terms of rubles instead of dollars, which removes the base from under our own currency. I’m sorry, our involvement in Ukraine was an overextension, and our measures in support of it were foolish and self-destructive. If I sound sympathetic to Russia, it is because I am frustrated with America and how this country is being run. The people who knew how to handle situations like this, such as the now oft-mention John Mearsheimer were ignored, in favor of weak-minded flag-wavers with complementary Lockheed caps in their closet.
Russian energy sanctions are definitely coming, so your second point is moot.
It’s not just the manufacture but the money laundering for the cartels. Maybe “It’s just business” but so is knocking America down a peg.
>Russian energy sanctions
This is the core problem. We in the west are under the parochial impression that most of the world will follow along with this, and that impression is incorrect. Russia has too many resources, that too much of the world is reliant upon. That is the crux of the decision that is being forced, and IMHO it is not going to be forced in our favor.
If we wanted to force such a decision, it should have been from a far stronger position, with ready alternatives for the rest of the world in place. Of course, it was the Russians who took the initiative on when that would or would not be possible.