> You're much more likely to get shot by a drunk angry husband anywhere in Wyoming than NYC.

Let's look at violent crime statistics[1].

Wyoming is one of the safest states in the country. New York (as a state), has 50% more violent crimes per capita. New York City has 100% more.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...

Check trimbo's reply below for the stats, but this assertion is simply not true. Wyoming's rate of violent crime per 100k population was 234 last year (8th lowest among US states) compared to rates of 538 for New York City and 715 for San Francisco. I have spent much of my life living and working in Wyoming/Bay Area and these stats seem to match my perception of each place. I know violence existed in Wyoming, but it was shocking when something like a murder happened. In big cities, the social fabric is different and individual events get lost in a sea of statistics.

It's easy (for either side) to rely on stereotypes about places we haven't spent much time, but the statistics (as well as my lived experience) tell a different story than the one you are trying to spin. Admittedly, in both places the worst of the crime is experienced by people who are lower on the socio-economic ladder, especially if they can't afford a place to live. It just turns out there is a higher concentration of those folks (for a variety of reasons: cost of living, availability of services, etc...) in cities than rural towns.

This isn't true. It basically breaks down like this:

* Property crimes are much higher in cities than anywhere else

* Violent crime rates are highest in cities, but the difference isn't as stark (though still pretty big)

Source: https://twitter.com/RyanRadia/status/1461904766238404611

But even this is too kind to cities, because while the average rate of crime in cities varies a lot from neighborhood to neighborhood and city to city, all the most dangerous places in the country are in cities.

There is no rural area with a sustained 60+ per 100k homicide rate, but you'll find that in North St. Louis.

Source: https://twitter.com/RyanRadia/status/1510472732089241603

Similarly, when you're in the Tenderloin in San Francisco you are in one of the most dangerous places in the country. There is no rural area that even remotely compares.

FBI seems to have murder data for 2019.

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-...

According to those tables the state of Wyoming had a murder rate of 3.4 per 100k and New York city had a murder rate of 3.8 per 100k. It doesn't seem right to me that "You're much more likely to get shot" in Wyoming versus NYC. I think, based on the data, that you're slightly more likely to get shot in NYC. Furthermore, in the last couple years murders have substantially increased in NYC.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/histor...

Fruits of an experiment in progressivism driven by the DA.

I once had a break-in and laptop stolen, tried to call the cops and to my alarm no one answered. Called another number and was told to call 911, again no answer. Filed an online report, no follow up.

1 week later, car broken in again in a parking lot with surveillance camera.

What do your anecdotes have to do with progressivism?

CA is one of the most “progressive” states. SF is one of the most “progressive” cities in a progressive state. Chesa is one of the most “progressive” DAs in a progressive city in a progressive state.

Progressives have complete control of the legislation and the enforcement and this is the result of their policies in action.

SF is placed in a difficult position due to its extremely high cost of living in a small area. It does not matter what policies SF put into place, there will still be people on the streets: "63% said an inability to afford rent was the primary culprit; 11% of unhoused San Franciscans actually had jobs."[0]

[0] https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Edito...

The rampant drug crisis isn’t helping, it is a mental health and drug crisis causing homelessness more than a lack of housing. They say they are following “The Portugal model” but they are not. Portugal does not tolerate open drug use or openly being high/aggressive.

There is also a housing crisis but I am not sympathetic. SF just refuses to build buildings, everything gets mired in “affordable housing” debates. Build houses and skyscrapers until the prices go down and then build a couple more. Simple supply and demand.

Additionally SFs budget has doubled in a decade. They do less with more than practically any other city.

yeah cops suck what does that have to do with the topic at hand?

You don’t think there might be a connection between rampant crime and ineffective policing?

There certainly is a connection but not necessarily the one you’re suggesting. “I called the cops and they didn’t show up therefore progressive justice policies are bad” is quite a leap. Can’t it also be that cops are just jerks, who largely don’t live in the city, who are happy to collect the paychecks and watch the city fall apart because they are personally invested in the political narrative?

There are plenty of videos floating around out there of cops refusing to take reports on break-ins and robberies and even assaults. It’s really odd to me that anyone on a site like this would take the side of the armed authoritarian gang in this debate.

I suspect the person you are responding to is also invested in a certain political narrative.

People complain about progressive polices, but from what progressive candidates lol

The left is powerless, we got trounced in the last election cycle and none of our policies, even popular ones like weed legalization, has been implemented.

If anything conservative policies are more widely implemented, and are what is failing.

The current model of policing is a failure in many ways, and now it can't even keep the peace anymore, it's pathetic. But who is going to evict your grandma so a real estate company can but hey house and sell it without the police?

While it might be true nationally that left policies aren’t being implemented, it’s not true on the West Coast. Just as one example, in Portland where I live, all drugs were decriminalized in personal user amounts beginning in February 2021, in response to a ballot measure. In Seattle, one of the candidates for the city attorney’s office during this last election had previously tweeted “Eat shit” to the SPD’s benign holiday greeting, and she still secured a healthy chunk of the vote. At least one of Seattle’s city council members is a socialist and regularly advocates for seizing private housing to redistribute.

To be super precise the council member you're referring to, Kshama Sawant, is technically a self-avowed Trotskyist. If a Trotskyist can be elected to city government it's pretty fair to say the left is "winning" in that particular city. When you dust off your history books and think about Trotsky's "Permanent Revolution" for a bit, suddenly a lot of the policies that actively make people more miserable start to make more sense.

Could you elaborate on how the theory of permanent revolution is showing up? I’m curious.

nobody picking up 911 isn't 'cops suck', it's 'systemic failure of emergency handling and law enforcement'

> more likely to get shot by a drunk angry husband anywhere in Wyoming than NYC

That is an oddly specific circumstance of murder, sounds like it may skew the statistics.

You are very bad at numerical thinking. Higher crime rate per capita does not mean higher crime rate, does not mean higher possibility to get attacked.