Re:Fed takes over AIG
by ojbyrne on Tuesday September 16, 2008 @09:05PM
(#306525)
That was the argument for Fanny and Freddie. Didn't seem to work, and I bet it won't this time. WAMU is next.
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You don't think the Fanny bailout "worked"? We don't have the luxury of seeing what would have happened if we hadn't bailed them out.
To make the pro-bailout argument more clear, here is one reputable economist predicting that if we had let the FMs default, the dollar would drop about 30% and unemployment would double, in about a week.
http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2008/09...
You're correct, I was glib. But I think those things will happen anyway - they'll just take longer than a week.
Re:Fed takes over AIG
by byrneseyeview on Tuesday September 16, 2008 @10:19PM
(#306584)
So it would be like a 19th-century panic/recession, without hard money. He's omitting the part where, since we aren't subsidizing stupid decisions, stupid decisions don't get made and the economy recovers very quickly.
If only subsidizing nothing was sufficient to prevent stupid decisions from being made!
Just to clarify, I meant that the other course might result in much more massive decline than has already happened. Think 22 sigma level -- like the '87 crash. Bailing out distressed financial firms is almost expected now. Thus, if it doesn't happen, then a lot of market participants may reevaluate their choice to invest in firms with heavy debt.
Obviously, these bail outs have their costs, such as the value of money lent as well as increased moral hazard, but it's worth considering whether this is worth the potential cost of a market collapse to the whole economy.
Re:Fed takes over AIG
by helveticaman on Tuesday September 16, 2008 @10:50PM
(#306617)
The market collapse of a whole economy? How's Google going to get torched by this? Or Boeing? Or most exporters?
More directly related to Boeing, according to the NYT (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/17/business/17aig.html), AIG has an aircraft leasing division that was planning to buy 73 aircraft this year.
In the short term the lack of credit availability could dent manufacturers, but those businesses that make real things that people want should be ok if they can survive until credit is again available to their customers.
because they are part of an integrated economy. where will google's advertizers find their ad budgets in a stagnant economy? boeing is no different. would these firms be as adversely impacted as wamu? no. but everyone suffers.