This is the first time Silicon Valley has been brought up in this discussion, but keep in mind that practices in the US are influential around the world, and the harms from strengthening inequality and substituting credentialism for meritocracy fall predominantly on people outside the US. The discussion has mentioned YC (Boston originally), Rust (Mozilla, San Francisco, previously SV), Microsoft (Washington), Android (SV), iPhone (SV), Instagram (SF), the Zetas (Mexico), Brazil (the movie), the American landscape (much of which is in Brazil, the country), Google (SV), FAANG (SV/Washington/SV/SV/SV, but all with offices worldwide), Linus Torvalds as a student (Finland), Fabrice Bellard (France), Guangdong (China), the ACM (US-wide), the IEEE (also), Triplebyte (SV but kind of worldwide), the SAT/ACT/AP tests (US-wide), Ukraine, Russia, and Canada.
I agree that the danger of war in Ukraine was foreseeable; I wrote about it in 02016 https://dercuano.github.io/notes/wwiii-genesis.html https://dercuano.github.io/notes/state-of-the-world.html and 02017 https://dercuano.github.io/notes/2017-sap-allocation.html and George Kennan wrote about it last millennium. But it's also true that it was widely dismissed two weeks ago.
I'm glad we agree on calling for humility! And, yes, Wayne's whole series is worth reading.
> I think you're being unrealistically conservative about how much things are going to change.
They will change, but the direction you are invoking is fundamentally in the opposite course of history wrt this industry. When has there been greater government control over the software industry, specifically when it comes to what constitutes a software engineer?
> You might be right that things will get better instead of worse
I said corporate control is rampant and regulators are as weak as ever. I supposed from a certain political point of view things are getting better.
> only two weeks since Russia invading Ukraine was widely dismissed as implausible
The Orange Revolution happened in 2005. I'm sure technothriller novelists and wargamers have at least been considering the current scenario since then.
> I'm not sure why you're dismissing Iran. 85 million people live there and their welfare is important.
Because this entire discussion has been mostly about Silicon Valley-adjacent engineering. Perhaps Leetcode interviews are a pain point for Iranian programmers. But if you're bringing up government tyranny in civil rights in one area to dismiss a licensure scheme - or more accurately, certification [0] is just plain ol' motte-and-bailey.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30493814
> Also, we have computers, so we can build our practices around them!
Computers are only as good as those who write the code, unless we are to start building our practices around the results of neural networks, which is a most intriguing proposal.
That Hillel Wayne article is a good read, but again, I am calling for humility. Because much of the engineering in this industry is far from the lofty bridges and oil rigs the word implies: https://www.karllhughes.com/posts/plumbing
And to return to Wayne, consider part one of his series: https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/are-we-really-engineers/