> I think you're being unrealistically conservative about how much things are going to change.
They will change, but the direction you are invoking is fundamentally in the opposite course of history wrt this industry. When has there been greater government control over the software industry, specifically when it comes to what constitutes a software engineer?
> You might be right that things will get better instead of worse
I said corporate control is rampant and regulators are as weak as ever. I supposed from a certain political point of view things are getting better.
> only two weeks since Russia invading Ukraine was widely dismissed as implausible
The Orange Revolution happened in 2005. I'm sure technothriller novelists and wargamers have at least been considering the current scenario since then.
> I'm not sure why you're dismissing Iran. 85 million people live there and their welfare is important.
Because this entire discussion has been mostly about Silicon Valley-adjacent engineering. Perhaps Leetcode interviews are a pain point for Iranian programmers. But if you're bringing up government tyranny in civil rights in one area to dismiss a licensure scheme - or more accurately, certification [0] is just plain ol' motte-and-bailey.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30493814
> Also, we have computers, so we can build our practices around them!
Computers are only as good as those who write the code, unless we are to start building our practices around the results of neural networks, which is a most intriguing proposal.
That Hillel Wayne article is a good read, but again, I am calling for humility. Because much of the engineering in this industry is far from the lofty bridges and oil rigs the word implies: https://www.karllhughes.com/posts/plumbing
And to return to Wayne, consider part one of his series: https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/are-we-really-engineers/
This is the first time Silicon Valley has been brought up in this discussion, but keep in mind that practices in the US are influential around the world, and the harms from strengthening inequality and substituting credentialism for meritocracy fall predominantly on people outside the US. The discussion has mentioned YC (Boston originally), Rust (Mozilla, San Francisco, previously SV), Microsoft (Washington), Android (SV), iPhone (SV), Instagram (SF), the Zetas (Mexico), Brazil (the movie), the American landscape (much of which is in Brazil, the country), Google (SV), FAANG (SV/Washington/SV/SV/SV, but all with offices worldwide), Linus Torvalds as a student (Finland), Fabrice Bellard (France), Guangdong (China), the ACM (US-wide), the IEEE (also), Triplebyte (SV but kind of worldwide), the SAT/ACT/AP tests (US-wide), Ukraine, Russia, and Canada.
I agree that the danger of war in Ukraine was foreseeable; I wrote about it in 02016 https://dercuano.github.io/notes/wwiii-genesis.html https://dercuano.github.io/notes/state-of-the-world.html and 02017 https://dercuano.github.io/notes/2017-sap-allocation.html and George Kennan wrote about it last millennium. But it's also true that it was widely dismissed two weeks ago.
I'm glad we agree on calling for humility! And, yes, Wayne's whole series is worth reading.
I think you're being unrealistically conservative about how much things are going to change. You might be right that things will get better instead of worse, but overall I think you're seriously underestimating just how much and how fast the world changes over time. Don't forget that it's only been 21 years since "Know Your Customer" was an unthinkable Big-Brother sort of idea, only a year since "vaccine passports" were widely thought to be a paranoid fantasy that could only happen in Israel, and only two weeks since Russia invading Ukraine was widely dismissed as implausible.
More broadly, I think that if you want to know what's going to happen 50 years in the future, you need to look at things that have happened at least 50 years into the past. 02072 will probably be as strange to us, if we live to see it, as our life today would have seemed in 01972.
I'm not sure why you're dismissing Iran. 85 million people live there and their welfare is important.
As for "smarter-than-thou", I think it's rather that good programmers are acutely aware of the severe limits on human mental capacity and therefore look for solutions that don't require them to be infallible or even smart. Also, we have computers, so we can build our practices around them!
A couple of years ago, Hillel Wayne interviewed a number of "crossover" engineers who had worked both as software engineers and in other engineering fields, and my recommendations above are strongly influenced by what they said about what the different fields can learn from one another. If you're interested in these issues, you might be interested in reading his writeup: https://www.hillelwayne.com/post/what-we-can-learn/