> First of all, at least 40% of the planes are home-built, so aviation in Russia most certainly will not come to a halt.
Home-build - maybe, but not without parts from the US\EU, not to mention most of the production equipment is not Russian too and you have to maintain it or replace it at somepoint.
Oh and to build something you need materials - some are local, some will have to be replaced if possible.
This will be a huge problem, especially in a country with strong corruption tradition.
Or salvage parts and engines from the leased Boeings if they are comparable.
That would assume they are willing to break their contract and not returning the machines. Which they can do, but then they will never be able to lease a machine again. At best, this buys them a couple of months of operations.
You underestimate the shortsightedness and short memories of businessmen when shown a pile of cash, especially at companies like Boeing and other defense manufacturers.
The businessmen might think of their wallets first, but as long as the sanctions last, they cannot send spare parts to Russia. Also, the defense manufacturers are currently quite happy with the increased defense spendings.
Whatever the US role in the events in Ukraine was, for sure they won't let Russia off the hook easily after this invasion.
Ok, at some point, sure, maybe.
Re:Last Day of IKEA in Moscow
by robin_reala on Saturday March 05, 2022 @03:31AM
(#30565612)
Home-built doesn’t mean “all parts produced in Russia”. And it just takes a handful of parts to be included in sanctions – especially with just-in-time manufacturing – for an entire production line to grind to a halt.
There are about half a dozen SSJs and MC-21s produced every month, let's check back in a couple of months from now, and see if those lines ground to a halt or doubled their production. I'm curious myself!
Then, how do you picture 500 planes getting returned and leasing companies instantly re-leasing them to other customers to keep their own business afloat? Even if that does happen, worst case, that will reduce Russian air traffic to something like Covid days-level. There are a lot of hypotheticals in this thread, facts on the ground right now are, the planes are flying, cargo ships are delivering and all but 7 banks are moving the money across the borders just fine.