> There's only one way for him out now,

What way is that? Because I think the one he's banking on is victory in the war over the next four weeks.

Russia will suffer greatly under sanctions, but that itself is unlikely to bring him under.

His oligarchs are already scrambling. Usmanov lost his boat, Abramovich is trying to sell all his UK estates. The ordinary Russia can suffer, but I doubt Putin can keep going with his Oligarchs against him.

Because after Russia "wins" comes the propaganda campaign, which will involve public executions and reeducation "camps" aimed at "proving" Putin's story about a Ukrainian Nazi genocide. This doesn't end with Putin going home and the violence ending. What will happen is that Putin will take Ukraine, and then the violence continues and gets worse.

> What way is that?

The Hitler 1945 option.

BTW, for those who haven't read it, one of the most chilling books on war is "The Last Days of Hitler" (https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/L/bo362699...) which is a carefully researched (if imperfect) chronicle of ... well, the last days of hitler. With US and Russia approaching Berlin on two sides, and no hope whatsoever, Hitler commanded over a near-impenetrable bunker and refused to surrender. By the end, the US retreated and lets Russia do the last work, and german units fought westward to surrender to the US.

The other enlightening book is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalingrad_(Beevor_book) which shows just how truly absurd the war between Germany and Russia was and how megalomaniacal the leaders of those countries were.

He is a resourceful survivor. Don't eulogize him before his time

Putin being deposed is the optimistic scenario, but I don't see it as the most likely one. He's pretty insulated from external attack, and he has internal dissent pretty locked down at this point. Hitler wasn't finished until the allies were rolling into Berlin. He fought off coup attempts well after it was clear the war was lost. Putin isn't going to be under nearly the same level of external pressure. Honestly I expect it's most likely the world is stuck with him until aging and/or disease make him unable to rule. Hope I'm wrong, of course.

You might be right, in this scenario Putin will cling on a la Bachar al Assad

20 years ago Russia had term limits for the president of 8 years I think...