> It does seem like a good time to leave

Alas, too late for me...

> or a new government to replace Putin with that would act any different

This. I'm tired of the personalisation of the behaviour of the Russian government. Putin didn't launch this war all on his own; he's the head of government, he isn't Napoleon Bonaparte.

I'm uncomfortable about the sanctions regime that is being imposed. If the Russian economy is destroyed the result will be chaos, even if the war ends tomorrow, and Putin is deposed. I don't relish the prospect of political chaos in a country with more nuclear warheads than any other.

This take is unconvincing. What benefit is the invasion to the bureaucracy and oligarchs? This is the result of a megalomaniac puffing his chest.

The man's whole schtick is puffing up his chest. That's what he does (and it means he's unlikely to back down; very bad look for a bare-chested man of action).

But pronouncing psychiatric diagnoses on him isn't very enlightening. If he's a megalomaniac, then half the world's governments are headed by people who are similarly mentally ill. Discounting aggressive foreign leaders as "mad" is bound to lead to incorrect conclusions and bad decisions.

He seems to be motivated by some pseudo-mystical beliefs about Russian national history and destiny. I imagine that by now, there are few at senior levels in the Russian administration that don't share his views. Oligarchs are a different kettle of fish; they're not nationalists, they're egotists. But from what I've read, oligarchs have nowadays been largely supplanted in government by old buddies of Putin from the intelligence services.

I suspect his generals will be the first to crack. They will be worrying about mutinies in their largely-conscript army. Their soldiers didn't sign up for a civil war against their "brothers" (which is what this war is, according to Putin). And generals tend to be practical, rational people.

Hmmm. I'm rewatching Waterloo with Rod Steiger as Napoleon, and wondering whether Putin's been watching the same movie; there's a sort of method-actor hamminess about Putin's public performances that looks a lot like Steiger being Napoleon.

So maybe I'm wrong; maybe he does have a Napoleon complex.

My interpretation is that Russia has changed even if Putin withdraws tomorrow and tries to revert things back to where they were a few months ago. The response from the West has been severe enough that it will take years for business relationships to be rebuilt. In that time, Russia would most likely form closer ties with China. This will mean the West will lose any leverage they previously had on their kleptocratic ruling class and things will most likely get even more difficult for ordinary citizens. And that's the most optimistic scenario except for some kind of miraculous uprising against Putin who currently enjoys a majority of support.

China won't be interested in propping up Russia. There's nothing in it for them.

They're a cheap source of several resources - wheat, oil, gas - and China probably doesn't want to bother owning all of Siberia.