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Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by mrkramer on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:04PM (#30483573)
>All that for Ukraine? What is so valuable there to him, I really still don’t get it.

I think Russia agreed with China to pull this wild experiment off with invading Ukraine in order to see how far US and its allies are willing to go to sanction Russia and to see if two of them(Russia and China) can survive and prevail together. This mentality "me against the world" is extremely irrational from diplomatic and economic point of view but it can work out because Russian and Chinese economy can complement, synergize and eventually survive and live together. Russia has 6,400 nuclear warheads—the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world so no way anybody can compete with them militarily. Also they have $600bn+ in national reserves in USD, gold and other assets so this vast amount of sanctions won't hurt them at least not in the short term. Btw Taiwan could be next.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by dillondoyle on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:20PM (#30483760)
Won't the bulk, or minimally a good chunk, of those non-rubble reserves be blocked now?

From the below on response was "$130 bln is gold, kept in Russia. $60 bln is renminbi, kept in China. All the rest - in G-7 countries"

Seems fluid and not totally clear the details yet. But from the below FT reporter. article is slightly vague since sanction rules are still being written. But on Twitter they wrote clearer that those assets will not be accessible.

---

A US official declined to say if the US would sanction the central bank by adding it the Treasury’s “Specially Designated Nationals” list, which Fishman described as “the single most impactful sanction that you could apply to Russia, and you could do it with a stroke of the pen.”

“It would render a sizeable chunk of their foreign exchange reserves unusable overnight,” Fishman said.

"The move would ban US entities from dealing with the central bank, which would mean that everyone would be “skittish about moving any assets on behalf of the Russian central bank”, he said.

https://www.ft.com/content/073a37d5-4daf-49ed-b5bc-a4682ef1a... https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1497705581817253889

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by not2b on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:13PM (#30483675)
China is backing away from this. In the Security Council they didn't vote with Russia to veto the condemnation of the invasion. They abstained.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by mrkramer on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:26PM (#30483823)
You really trust CCP? Russia and China have common enemy. US. No one else really matters to them because US is the only "West" superpower excluding India which is economically lagging quit a bit behind US and their competitor China.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by not2b on Saturday February 26, 2022 @10:23PM (#30485076)
This has nothing to do with trust; China would back Russia if it were in their interest, but it looks like they are hanging back, probably because it looks like it is blowing up in Russia's face.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by tarsinge on Sunday February 27, 2022 @03:36AM (#30486462)
That rhetoric makes me uneasy. Isn’t the US an enemy of China the choice of the US? My understanding is that until Trump overnight declaration of economic war and Biden continuing it China was maybe not an ally but a strong economic partner. Don’t tell me being authoritarian automatically makes it an enemy otherwise so would be Saudi Arabia with the Yemen situation being worse than anything in China.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by sharken on Saturday February 26, 2022 @08:48PM (#30484506)
Very soon I'll expect to see China put to the test, are they siding with Ukraine or not.

That means cutting off Russia from CIPS, the Chinese payment system akin to SWIFT.

Failure to do so will make China an accomplice and could thus face sanctions as well.

So the pressure is mounting on China to declare who they support. Being neutral is not an option here.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by ck2 on Sunday February 27, 2022 @12:36AM (#30485707)
Who the heck is going to be able to stop China?

No-one will be able to cut them off even if they side with Russia openly.

China sells $2.5 TRILLION per year to other countries, half trillion to USA

USA would collapse if China stopped selling here.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by gls2ro on Sunday February 27, 2022 @01:43AM (#30485985)
The play between the West and China is not so direct it is more played indirectly. So US/EU will not ask/impose China something nor China will support Rusia against US/EU directly. Everything will happen indirectly and none of these two sides will risk the chance of a direct question where the answear could be NO thus making them act directly => collapsing global economy.

So if China wants to support Occident they will do it indirect and the same will go for US/EU: they will not ask China directly to ban Russia but more suggest that China should not be very active to support Russia.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by sharken on Sunday February 27, 2022 @07:34AM (#30487790)
Well put, it's all about making China see how serious the situation is. And this description is closer to how things work in reality.

It's probably not the best way to treat China like Belarus, a middle ground is better for all.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lstodd on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:14PM (#30483702)
You're overthinking this.

It's irrational. As simple as that - just irrational.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by BbzzbB on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:31PM (#30483864)
Is there any reason to think he's a geopolitical idiot? I wouldn't exactly go praise his actions at a dinner with political donors (cough cough), but his history doesn't strike me as one from someone who doesn't know how to play politics and power. Is there precedent for stupid actions? Obviously looking at it from the lens of a dictator's self-interest, not my Westerner's ideals of morality. I can see this being a self-destructive mistake from an otherwise intelligent autocrat. Could also be the descent of his sanity but I'd like to know why that'd be believable, and hopefully that isn't the case as it'd make him that much more dangerous with regards to the likelihood of.. well, flipping the table.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by MrRiddle on Sunday February 27, 2022 @03:16AM (#30486378)
Russia cannot accept Ukraine to be in NATO hands. Just like US wasn’t able to allow Cuba to be in Soviet hands or how China would go to war if Hong Kong decided to want independence. It’s maths really, Putin or not it would be the same.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by reitanqild on Sunday February 27, 2022 @10:43AM (#30489430)
But dear MrRiddle: Ukraine wasn't even near getting Nato membership, was it?

Or do you have secret information that Nato would overnight change its rules to allow countries with disputed borders to join?

The problem with Ukraine seems to be that it was a successful democracy on the border of Russia and that due to the historically close connections between Russia and Ukraine, Russians could easily see themselves in Ukrainians.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by MrRiddle on Sunday February 27, 2022 @03:32PM (#30492193)
I don’t think so, Ukraine is key strategic point for Russia. It’s provides access to only warm water port Russia has and it’s very close to Moscow.

Ukraine was getting armed to the teeth, and with good stuff from the West. Russia had to react before it’s too late.

Keep in mind Russia shares border with many successful democracies from ex-Soviet block, I can’t see how that can ever be an argument.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by reitanqild on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:50PM (#30493601)
> Ukraine was getting armed to the teeth, and with good stuff from the West. Russia had to react before it’s too late.

You know why they were getting armed, don't you?

Because that fellow in Kreml kept financing terrorists in Donbas so they could shoot down airliners and shell kindergarten, right?

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by kavalg on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:37PM (#30492777)
What makes you think that Ukraine was an example of successful democracy. I don't have this feeling of "successful democracy" even for some neighboring EU countries such as Romania, Bulgaria and to some extent Greece (since the debt issue and the subsequent change in government). Quite the contrary, to me it feels that it is all smoke and mirrors propelled by mass media to convince the people that they live in an actual democracy. Under the smoke it is all business and geopolitics.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lobocinza on Sunday February 27, 2022 @09:08PM (#30495419)
Is being repressed by a puppet government paid by Russia a better alternative?
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by rsynnott on Sunday February 27, 2022 @04:37PM (#30492781)
> Could also be the descent of his sanity but I'd like to know why that'd be believable

Well, I mean, he's 69. It's not that unusual to go downhill at around that age, and he's been acting very oddly RE covid.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lstodd on Saturday February 26, 2022 @08:00PM (#30484143)
Nemtzov said in 2014, literally, "Putin is deranged and you should know that". This is why he was killed in 2015, mostly. Because even then that was the truth.

All those discussions about morals, mistakes and the descent of sanity are beside the point.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by BbzzbB on Saturday February 26, 2022 @09:02PM (#30484588)
How do you define an autocrat as "irrational" if not as one that's "lost sanity"? I interpreted your comment as meaning that, as well as this quote of being "deranged".

Sanity (Oxfod, 2nd def) :

>the state of being sensible and reasonable

Morality is indeed besides the point, I just added it as I feel dirty suggesting he's rationale 3 days after invading Ukraine without amending the idea.

As for mistake, I think speaking of a political mistake is relevant if we should consider your explanation wrong, i.e. he's sane/rational autocrat whose invasion backfired more than expected, should that be the case.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lstodd on Saturday February 26, 2022 @09:35PM (#30484782)
Let's start with that being an autocrat is irrational (or insane, or however you would have it) in itself.

I think we agree on that.

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by BbzzbB on Saturday February 26, 2022 @10:27PM (#30485101)
I guess that's the source of our disagreement as I don't agree with that despite living in a free democracy with no intention of leaving such a system (CC: my prior comment w.r.t. Western ideals).

Narcissist, certainly; immoral and corrupted, most likely; but still possibly rational [0], I see no reason they'd be de facto irrational despite how I feel about them. Born autocrats (or born in a line of succession) are a different story, but I'd argue it would even be unlikely for a commoner to ascend to absolute power without starting off as a rational, calculated and intelligent person (tho ofc not impossible, there are obvious cases). Not that there is any guarantee they'll necessarily remain so, seems unlikely after years or decades being surrounded by sycophants.

Feel free to disagree.

0: https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/americ...

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lstodd on Sunday February 27, 2022 @05:50PM (#30493607)
I'm not seeing any difference if one was born and nurtured into autocracy, or just happened to have it land in their hands. I'd say in either case the pressures are such that the resulting behaviour can not even be named as selfishness. It's just survival, and society needs/development/etc/etc be damned.

Survival breeds sycophants, ...

Shit, why am I reciting stuff from 8th century BC here?

Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by mrkramer on Saturday February 26, 2022 @07:20PM (#30483761)
Nazi Germany against the world was irrational but still Hitler did it. Now imagine Hitler having 6,400 nuclear warheads like Russia has them today. What would and who would stop Hitler? I think Russian government took a wild gamble taking in consideration their military supremacy and their ability to survive alone with the help of "friendly" China.
Re:Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achiev... by lstodd on Saturday February 26, 2022 @08:06PM (#30484189)
Nah, that's bullshit, sorry. They hoped that UA will collapse inside 48 hours, but this didn't happen.

Not to say there aint no 6400 warheads. They, you know, require maintenance. 640 100kt range maybe.