> via Armenia, Egypt, and China via netting agreements

Nobody argues alternatives don't exist. Russia will pivot to China.

But for all our gripes with Beijing, they're a more rational regime than Putin's. (See: North Korea.) Russia being their vassal is better than the nonsense they are today. And China's systems are more expensive than SWIFT, which will reduce Russia's proceeds.

China is an empire on the rise, Russia is one in the throes of death. Russia will eventually have to choose between Europe and China.

Yes, it seems that Russia needs China way more than China needs Russia.

Indeed, I see your point.

China’s reaction to this crisis has elucidated for me the fact that its government is a complex institution with separate power bases (cf. Putin’s lonely autocracy).

It’s clear that at least some of those nodes earnestly hold the principle of always-sacrosanct sovereignty which is a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy (and of its criticism of the West), and are not pleased with the hypocrisy now inherent in their alliance.