I'm reasonably convinced that the only reason for anyone relevant to float around the idea of a NATO-Ukraine relationship was to drag an already economically fragile Russia into a conflict that they may "win" but at a high cost for Russia and for Ukraine. I say "win" because Russia will poison Ukraine for NATO, making it less (or not at all) desirable for NATO but will pay a heavy price. Overall that's a win for NATO as many (most?) members can breathe a lot easier around a weakened Russia.

Ukraine had been interested in joining NATO and the EU for 10 years now. The west has used this conflict very well but that is not the reason for the conflict. The reason for the conflict is entirely in Putin's head.

> Ukraine had been interested in joining NATO and the EU for 10 years now

When Ukraine was flirting with the idea of a relationship with the EU in 2013-2014 the Crimean invasion happened. It was absolutely predictable even at that time and in fact many EU officials I have spoken to (including high ranking ones) agreed as much since back then. The signs of a regime which doesn't stand any proximity of a threat to their rule was obvious.

> The reason for the conflict is entirely in Putin's head

I have never been in Putin's head, nor met or talked to him. But to my pride I do forget more history every day than most people will learn in their lifetime and can't think of similar example of a superpower happily accepting adversaries at their border.

In recent history look no further than when the US ordered a naval blockade on Cuba after Cuba's request for Russian missiles to be placed on the island to defend in the event of another US invasion attempt. Putin is literally taking a page from that book.

I don't need to be in Putin's head because he's not some brilliant tactician doing something unheard of, he's just playing an old song to a new audience. If it's the first time you hear it you just have to pay more attention to what came before today.

> But to my pride I do forget more history every day than most people will learn in their lifetime and can't think of similar example of a superpower happily accepting adversaries at their border.

Not to burst your bubble, but the USSR accepted Turkey with nukes on their border, and before them, Japan. China accepts being essentially surrounded by hostile powers, many of whom are part of NATO.

The Black Sea separates Russia and Turkey while an invasion staged from Ukraine could cut Russia off from the Black Sea in a few days. Very different security concerns.

(Of course “Turkiye” becoming a member of Nato in these times would have been a joke considering Erdoğan. But maybe I’m just showing my naivete.)

They said USSR and they did share a small land border.

Fair. I guess Georgia? Crossing the Caucasus Mountains is harder than crossing the European Plains.

I don't like bubbles anyway :). All those countries have consistently acted exactly with the same methods you see now. Trying to avoid direct war but with no issues interfering with each other's conflicts and "buffer countries".

Georgia, Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan are all places Russia and Turkey banged heads one way or another. Just like Russia is taunting NATO to bang heads in Ukraine. China, US, India, Pakistan, Israel, Russia, Turkey are other powerful countries constantly putting out a fire and starting another one. The single larger difference being that the sphere of influence of most of those countries expands far less than US' so their conflicts are generally closer to their actual geographic border rather than on the other side of the world. Otherwise they're all fighting to maintain that buffer in all possible ways.

And at a completely different scale, people in rich neighborhoods rarely accept inconvenient buildings or neighbors right next to them as long as they can do something about it. It's not an indictment on either the people or the countries named above. Just the state of things.

Perhaps the only place with nukes and no sabre rattling today is Western Europe. Then again they have the US to do the rattling for them and pay for the service. The picture will be a lot clearer when this too becomes history.

China is in the midst of a decades long effort to not be surrounded by hostile powers. They went to war over Korea & would have over Vietnam if the US had invaded the north.

China started a war with Vietnam almost immediately after USA surrendered. (Not contradicting you; if anything supporting the point...)

As a sort of redux, I guess my feeling is that obviously, every state would prefer to be surrounded by allies, or better still, by seas.

However, the idea that all superpowers inevitably go to war to preserve this state is just wrong. If you consider superpowers starting from antiquity to today, the only state that has achieved this situation (at any point?) is the USA. Every other has had at least one significant land border with an adversary.

(PS: Probably the biggest one is, of course, between the USSR and China, which was a very hot border since the sino-soviet split).

In general, I think you are correct. Neighboring states will learn to coexist or at least one of them will cease to exist as a state. Some Americans imagine that "exceptionalism" exempts us from this dynamic, but most of us are wiser.

PS: it was nice while it lasted... https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/russia-and-chin...

Russia isn't a superpower, by most commonly accepted definitions only the US is and someone called "Vladimir Putin" has stated that too, for whatever that's worth. China, India and the EU have a better claim to that title though they're not superpowers either.

"In recent history look no further than when the US ordered a naval blockade on Cuba after Cuba's request for Russian missiles to be placed on the island to defend in the event of another US invasion attempt. Putin is literally taking a page from that book."

Well, except for the fact that the US never actually invaded Cuba.

It was a grave mistake for Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons they inherited from the USSR.

then what was the bay of pig invasion?

That was an "invasion" by anti-Castro Cubans backed by the US government, but can't hardly be considered an US invasion.

Yes... US "only" financed, coordinated, and offered active military support for the invasion. Then imposed a blockade on Cuba for asking for nuclear help from the USSR.

And in 2014 forces which were definitely just pro-Russian militias as they clearly had no Russian insignia invaded Crimea the moment Ukraine started contemplating a relationship with the West/EU.

This kind of rationalization or nit-picking in order to reach the conclusion you had already settled on has no value, just because there are sides doesn't mean you have to blindly take one. Education and critical thinking help.

It only offered very limited military support. You entirely ignore that Castro came to power under a different pretext than communism but Cubans only learned this too late. Unfortunately Kennedy didn't give the air support needed. Cuba could have been in much better shape today.

Don't compare an authoritarian regime sending militias to conquer the territory of a democratic country to a democratic country training and supporting exiles to get rid of their tormentor. Intent matters.

Let's not kid ourselves with this kind of rationalization. Intent matters when you failed to achieve your claimed results. When you need to explain why the crap you pulled smells so much better than the same crap the other guy pulled. But it's still crap and rationalizing it from a safe place where you just get to send thoughts and prayers rather than taking it is not only completely worthless but also insulting to anyone who ever had to suffer from someone else's "good intentions", particularly a superpower's. You'd appreciate those intentions a lot less if you were at the wrong end of them.

When you do a good job you don't need to explain your intentions. It's a lesson you learn the very first time you do a good job.

Not if Russia takes Ukraine and controls the majority of wheat following into EU.

Near term impacts of climate change will very likely leads to crop failures in many of the EU's largest producing regions.

When you don't have enough food to feed your people, politics and economic sanctions become extremely flexible.

When resources run low controlling food and oil will be a very big deal.

This is delusional.

Curious what's delusional about this?

Russian and Ukraine combined account for 29% of global wheat exports, much of that to the EU.

Near term climate change will most certainly lead to massive crop failures, particularly in currently bountiful parts of the EU.

Countries like the UK (I know not EU) already cannot feed their people without imports, something like 50% of the UKs food supply is imported.

It is nearly certain that within a few decades, perhaps even sooner, we will be at a point where there is not enough food. We've already see notable crop failures in the EU.

Most of us have grown up in a time of plenty, but that time is running short.

All of this is fairly well established, so is my "delusion" in that Putin is aware of this and acting on it?

One obvious answer is that the US massively overproduces food on a scale that's hard to fathom, which is part of why we make extremely inefficient biofuels (corn ethanol) out of a big chunk of it and use it for inefficient meat production.

After some conversion through various bad units of measure (bushels->pounds->calories), and assuming ~2250 calories a day average), it looks to me like current US corn production could feed somewhere around 1.6 billion people their entire yearly caloric needs, if it was actually directed entirely at feeding people as efficiently as possible.

And that is rather obviously not the only crop or source of food originating in the US.

Math sources:

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2022/01-12-2022.php - corn output.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/in-defense-of-... - bushel/pound/calorie conversion

------

In short, I don't think it's very realistic to think that Europe is going to face a literal inability to get enough food even if the entirety of Ukraine never grew another plant again.

Most of the Russian and Ukraine wheat exports don't go to the EU but Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, Bangladesh and regions there around.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/17/infographic-russia-...

France exports 15,228,664 tonnes of wheat, not far behind the Ukraine with 17,314,278.

Other significant wheat producers in the EU include Germany, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Lithuania.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exp...

What climate change would let crops fail in all corners of the EU, but not Ukraine and Russia?

I agree with this assessment, and predicted this to be the year when consolidation around resources begins.

Yeah, I've already had my fill of hot takes from uninformed people on the internet, and this war isn't even 24 hours old.

Links to actual expert analyses, on the other hand, would be much appreciated.