It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.

Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE

I don't know about the trains but looking at shipping:

-Nordstream 2 has a capacity to transport 55 billion cubic meters per year[1]

-The biggest LNG transport ship "Mozah" built by Samsung Heavy Industries can transport a equivalent of ~162 million cubic meters in a single load

This leads to a ~339,5 full loads per year needed to replace the pipeline volume. Nordstream 2 probably wouldn't run at full capacity initially but even at 50% utilisation it would be nearly impossibe to replace it with shipping.

[1]https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah

They don't need to replace something that doesn't even exist?

Nord Stream 2 was finished last year, it just isn't used yet.

Sure, but the income stream (or gas output stream) doesn't exist yet.

Putting gas on a ship where nordstream leaves land makes no sense at all if you want to ship to china. You’d have to navigate all of the Baltic Sea and then go all the way around either Scandinavia and Russia or via the Mediterranean. You’d also need to build a liquefaction plant to transport gas via train or ship efficiently. If you’d invest in that kind of infrastructure, build it somewhere more suitable.

And China interestingly does not want Russia to build the pipeline that would enable that.

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin.

I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

> I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

I think any trust that Russia still enjoyed in the west is gone as of today. A few days ago the official Russian position was "Nobody is planning an invasion of Ukraine." Today, Russia has invaded Ukraine. This is not how you make deals.

If anything, I'd have thought it's likely to go the other way: China gets to play the relatively responsible global citizen that doesn't send in tanks to resolve its territorial claims. Also new potential export markets.

I thought Putin was doing the show of power for domestic consumption where he'd embarass the West by actually withdrawing the armies slightly after he promised and it'd all end in a summit with both sides claiming they 'won', but he's gone well beyond that now.

>I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

If they are serious about partnering with the west, they should have embraced reforms and become a member of NATO. The fact that they haven't is indicative of Putin's plan to counter the west. It's more likely they will partner with China just because Putin isn't thinking beyond that. He's 70 after all and they have no effective playbook against China (ala Foundation of Geopolitics against the west).

> they should have embraced reforms

They tried that in the 90s. There are two problems. They don't want to be a colony for Western powers. Russia is a collection of a few different nations. You have to hold it by a strong hand, otherwise you have a civil war e.g. Chechnya.

So they want to do it now on partner relations with Europe. Russia will provide, natural resources, transportation link to Asia, you can relocate polluting factories to Siberia, you get access to our market and labor. Also, you we will provide security and balance China. You don't need those pesky Americans. In return Russia wants, capital, tech and modernisation of the country.

So Europeans, do you want EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok or war?

trains and artic route.

You don't partner with nations by forcing them into a corner. That's not partnership, that's conquest.

The USSR lost the cold war. The fact that they want to have their cake and eat it too is the root of the issue. The compromise to be admitted into the western system is actually pretty mild, and there are many strong nations within the western framework. Russia would have no problems operating on a similar level as Japan or France if they gave up their desire for geopolitical hegemony.

>threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin.

Are you talking the PLC or the Nazis?

Polish-Russian War (1605–1618) and Unity Day.

May be a large market for Russia, but China is completely invested in renewables. Just look at their pledged energy pipeline. No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today.

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annua...

> China is completely invested in renewables

> No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today.

Eh??

"China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants"

https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/

"China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build more than 600 coal power units"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asi...

"COP26 aims to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it"

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-co...

There only is "China pledges to stop building new coal energy plants abroad" -- the last word matters.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58647481

Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.

And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.

Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...

which is plenty because the winter is ending, so even without gas nobody should freeze. What would the industry do is other question.

There have been energy crisis in the past and most people survived it, albeit with major inconveniences. I would say that is a small price to pay for peaceful resolution.

One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.

Russia cares a lot about who its sells its energy to. China is a far worse trade partner than Europe.

Europe is easy to bully, it doesn't have a single voice and its pretty predictable which parts will have competing interests. China is not. Russia will lose a lot of its independence if it becomes beholden to China. That would be a bad endgame.

Europe is also beholden to public opinion that does not want increased energy prices. China doesn't care about that.

As a motivation that makes sense, but what alternative will Russia have? Do you think Russia is banking on Europe eventually lifting sanctions and purchasing gas again?

It's not a matter of "again". Gas purchases are not on the table as far as sanctions go. It's the other way around. The EU is afraid that if they impose serious sanctions Russia will cut off the gas supply. This will hurt the EU far more than it hurts Russia in the short term.

Doesn't most of european gas run through Ukraine? Ukraine could use it as leverage .

Ukraine's goal is not to antagonize Europe. There's on leverage in threatening your friends.

It is certainly a last resort option, but on the face of existential threat, denying Russia a major source of income to finance the war is a legitimate goal.

The major point of Nord Stream 2 was to remove this PoF.

That's the wrong perspective. You have to remember that even at the height of the cold war, the Soviet Union was still providing gas to Europe. This has always been the arrangement. Ukraine stopping gas is not denying Russia income. It's denying Europe a critical resource.

China will just press Russia into servitude by demanding lower prices (who else they gonna sell to). It's still going to ruin Russia and maybe China then remembers some of the ethnical-chinese regions of Russia that Putin just set a convenient precedent for.

I doubt that China would pay the same price. They will use it to get discount.

They already have, Putin’s gas deals with China are ruinous for Russia, they even managed to sell it at a loss half the time. What a mastermind that guy is.