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Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by vmception on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:07PM (#30430466)
I finally read up on these regions, and know that I'm not done given that all sources are questionable and no consensus has been reached.

But I do understand that Donetsk and Luhansk both have petitioned for more autonomy in an amended Ukranian constitution (that would give all administrative-districts more autonomy). This has failed but apparently Ukraine is in the process of becoming more decentralized with their own constitutional amendments, pursuing a concept of Federalism/Confederacy similar to Switzerland, which Donetsk and Luhansk would benefit from but that idea of satisfying those districts has long passed, now that they handle their own affairs and also receive Russian passports now.

So because the desired constitution has failed, when that chance for diplomacy was available, and they already receive Russian passports, what exactly is the goal here?

Are they supposed to be on the map as their own countries? Are there two new countries on the map? Is there an accession to Russia?

I get Putin's words look more like a piecemeal approach of chopping territory back from Ukraine, until it and all former soviet states are simply Russian states. But I think most of that is just grandstanding to sound cool to his own people. I also think any opportunity of affinity towards Russia will be seized upon, especially when there is a direct border.

I'm purposely avoiding the discrimination against Ukrainian-speaking people and actions against dissidents, given the area is reported as being lawless for some time now. And focusing on the geopolitical element.

So with that in mind, what does recognition as independent even mean? They get Russian passports and citizenship and freedom of movement and work in Russia already. Are they simply saying that civil and criminal justice can't be appealed to either Ukraine or Russian higher courts? Going to go with the autonomous region concept until a future referendum of accession into Russia?

I can't get an answer from my Ukrainian friends either, "its just hybrid war, American news making it bigger than it is, Biden making misinformation". I watched Putin's speech, but okay, maybe my translation was wrong, seems like denial to say Biden is just making a big deal though, but I guess I too wouldn't care about a border region full of people that aren't interested in my country's values. This last point seems to be what another comment from someone transplanted to Ukraine is saying.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by yakshaving_jgt on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:22PM (#30430654)
> Are there two new countries on the map?

It depends who's map you're looking at.

> I'm purposely avoiding the discrimination against Ukrainian-speaking people

Bear in mind that it's not as simple as discriminating between those who speak Ukrainian and those who speak Russian. A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia.

> Going to go with the autonomous region concept until a future referendum of accession into Russia?

This is most likely it, though it could further escalate into an even more egregious invasion, which would trigger a military response from Ukraine, which would then give Russia the casus belli they are looking for.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by jcranmer on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:28PM (#30430726)
> A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia.

The best counterpoint for most westerners to understand is this: most Irish people speak English as their primary, if not only, language. Yet English-speaking Irishmen were (and still are) vehemently against being part of the UK.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by mistrial9 on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:38PM (#30430837)
thank you for including examples of people - on both sides of that conflict - who will not stop fighting their neighbors, no matter what the century. We used to say long ago, "what is so funny about peace, love and understanding?"
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by p1esk on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:59PM (#30431094)
Not the same. My understanding is Ireland has always been culturally separate from England, and as you said, wanted to be politically separate for many centuries. Ukraine is a very young independent state, with its borders changing significantly throughout the last 100 years, but for the most part it was happy to be part of Russia/USSR until the USSR collapse.

I'd even say Ukraine is probably more like California, (or Texas) in relation to US, rather than Ireland in relation to GB. And just like I wouldn't mind if California separated from US, I don't mind Ukraine being separate from Russia, but the cultural ties are probably similar to the ties between CA and the rest of US.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by int_19h on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:18PM (#30431364)
Ukraine may be a young state, but the ethnic identity is considerably older. And yes, of course there are significant cultural ties due to shared origin - so what? Serbs and Croats are even closer, which did not preclude them from trying to ethnically cleanse each other in Bosnia.

> it was happy to be part of Russia/USSR

It was so happy in Imperial Russia that the authorities saw it fit to severely censor publications in Ukrainian:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ems_Ukaz

It can also be instructive to look at this list and see how many of those were against Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cossack_uprisings

As for the USSR, well, there was that whole Holodomor thing.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by p1esk on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:36PM (#30431667)
Most large nations have these kind of issues from time to time. US had the civil war. Still, I wouldn't say that historically Ukraine wanted to be completely separate from Russia in the same way as Ireland has (from UK).

Nationalists are usually the loudest minority, while the bulk of population does not really care.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by int_19h on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:45PM (#30431797)
The only time I can think of when Ukraine as a polity expressed the desire to be aligned with Russia was the Pereyaslav Rada during the Hetmanate. And that one was really a choice between Russia and Poland, so the only question they answered is whether Ukraine is culturally closer to one or the other (no surprise there, given their religion). It did not preclude the subsequent hetmans from seeking foreign aid against Russia in further rebellions.
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by ncmncm on Wednesday February 23, 2022 @02:45AM (#30438700)
The definitive relationship between Ukraine and Russia was established when Russia very deliberately arranged to starve 2 million Ukrainians to death by the expedient of driving in and stealing literally every bit of agricultural product they could get their hands on, and killing anybody in their way. Many thousands fled where they could to places with difficulties of their own, often also of Soviet origin.

Shortly after, Germans rolled in and devastated the country. Then, the Russians came back through, treating everyone still alive as a Nazi collaborator (because "how could they still be alive, if not?"). Ukrainians who had been drafted by the Nazis and forced to serve as cannon fodder, but survived, were shot or deported to the GULag as traitors (because "how could they still be alive, if not?").

Ukrainians do not think of themselves as Russian even so much as Irishmen consider themselves English.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by jcranmer on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:30PM (#30431573)
The Ireland/England example was meant to be an example of how speaking the same language is not indicative of having the same culture.

Culture is really hard to pin down, and there are examples of distinct national identities that are really hard to differentiate in ethnographic terms--the US and Canada are the example that comes readily to mind here.

As for the "Ukrainians happily being part of Russia/USSR" bit, I think the sibling comment does it more justice than I can.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by frenchy on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:31PM (#30431574)
> but for the most part it was happy to be part of Russia/USSR until the USSR collapse.

All of the Ukrainian imigrants in North America would dispute that. See also, Holodomor.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by p1esk on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:45PM (#30431799)
My father is a Ukrainian immigrant in North America. He does not share your opinion. So you probably shouldn't speak for all of them.

As for Holodomor, it was caused by a bloody dictator who killed a lot more Russians than Ukrainians during the same period, so I'm not sure it proves anything about Russian/Ukrainian relationship. To him it would not make any difference if Ukraine was not part of Soviet Union (see how he treated Poland).

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by LargoLasskhyfv on Wednesday February 23, 2022 @01:58AM (#30438460)
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by yakshaving_jgt on Wednesday February 23, 2022 @02:42AM (#30438682)
Yeah, that illustrates my point.

In this Yandex map, Abkhazia is labelled.

On both Google Maps and the iOS Maps application (at least on my telephone, as I currently sit in Ukraine), there is no such label.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by ed_balls on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:45PM (#30430913)
> I watched Putin's speech

I've seen it as well. My guess is that Covid made a huge dent (Low gas prices and economic problems). Putin has to direct this anger somewhere.

This is the swan song of the Russian state. People living in the Soviet sphere see how other countries are developing. Ukraine had a higher GDP per capita than Poland - now it's 4x lower. It's true for every single place from Kaliningrad, Caucasus to Vladivostok. They are worse off than their neighbours for purely political reasons.

Only thing that holds everything together is the authoritarian regime with strong military and natural resources. The problem is the world will become less dependent on fossil fuels and mining in Siberia is more expensive than pretty much everywhere. Russia won't be able to pay for the army.

This is an existential threat to the Russian state. My prediction is that around 2030 there will a civil war, 2nd Chechnya.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by ohwellish on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:42PM (#30431759)
it's not about covid or money - its about Ukraine becoming stronger, more independent than ever from russian influence as old corrupt politicians are getting off their political power so he no longer have a leverage over Ukrainian government the way he used to have

its about the choice Ukranian ppl made in 2014 and strong independent Ukraine is a direct threat to russian kleptocracy as russain ppl might have ideas they could make this push too

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by ncmncm on Wednesday February 23, 2022 @02:52AM (#30438738)
Yes, this is an indication of Putin's weakness.

Putin desperately had to be seen, in Russia, as doing something that seemed to indicate strength, in order to be able to retain power. Facing off against NATO, and getting them to offer him concessions, served that purpose. Invading another country served that purpose. Holding bits of Ukraine, and the fates of people in them, are very much incidental. The concessions were not necessary, but the offers of concessions were all-important.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by throwawayay02 on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @03:06PM (#30432969)
Energy prices are near all time highs, Russia's finances should be great.
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by ed_balls on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @03:20PM (#30433147)
but not in 10 years
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by dandanua on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @02:14PM (#30432233)
> I do understand that Donetsk and Luhansk both have petitioned for more autonomy

Crimea was an autonomy. The outcome you know.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by iskander on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:28PM (#30430723)
Every country has regions with distinct cultural and linguistic identities. It often takes an outside power to enable them to split away.

Like with Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria, &c the central actor is Russia, not the regions themselves.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by adolph on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @12:40PM (#30430866)
A counterpoint might be:

The Dissolution of Czechoslovakia (Czech: Rozdělení Československa, Slovak: Rozdelenie Česko-Slovenska) took effect on January 1, 1993, and was the self-determined split of the federal republic of Czechoslovakia into the independent countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Both mirrored the Czech Socialist Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic, which had been created in 1969 as the constituent states of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia

Edit:

Also Catalonia:

The Catalan independence movement (Catalan: independentisme català;[a] Spanish: independentismo catalán) is a social and political movement (with roots in Catalan nationalism) which seeks the independence of Catalonia from Spain, along with in the movement supporting the independence of Northern Catalonia from France, and Alghero from Italy (among other Catalan-speaking areas, referred to as the Catalan Countries).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement

Also Euskara:

The Basque conflict, also known as the Spain–ETA conflict, was an armed and political conflict from 1959 to 2011 between Spain and the Basque National Liberation Movement, a group of social and political Basque organizations which sought independence from Spain and France.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_conflict

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by iskander on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @02:22PM (#30432332)
There are a few counter-examples and Czechoslovakia is definitely one of them.

The Catalan and Basque independence movements, however, have been successfully contained by Spain. They lacked external support and could not compete with the strength of state suppression. If a neighbor ever chooses to get involved we might see independent Basque and Catalan countries.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by adolph on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @08:49PM (#30436561)
As I thought about it today, maybe a better example might be the en/exclaves in the India/Bangladesh borderland established after the partition. It looks like these might have been rationalized in the last 10 years.

Inside the main part of Bangladesh, there were 111 Indian enclaves (17,160.63 acres), while inside the main part of India, there were 51 Bangladeshi enclaves (7,110.02 acres). Under the Land Boundary Agreement, the enclave residents could continue to reside at their present location or move to the country of their choice.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh%E2%80%93India_borde...

[dead]
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by adolph on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @10:11PM (#30437144)
What a terrible claim. For one, if you take a look at their other comments and submissions they don't talk Russia much for propaganda. For two, if they were, I'd like it if their paymasters wasted more money on them. Feed a troll, bankrupt the Ruskies!
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by iskander on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @02:58PM (#30432853)
?
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by int_19h on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @01:21PM (#30431421)
Putin literally wrote an essay on how he sees Ukraine:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

It's agitprop, of course. But it's agitprop for both external and internal consumption, and the latter parts are very telling.

Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by throwawayay02 on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @03:11PM (#30433032)
That's a quite good read. I'd like an annotated version with fact checking and commentary.
Re:Ukraine Conflict Live Map by int_19h on Tuesday February 22, 2022 @06:29PM (#30435348)
There's also yesterday's TV address, which is in a similar vein, but more aggressive:

https://tass.ru/politika/13791435

An annotated version would be interesting. TL;DR is that it's a mix of truths, omissions, and lies. He's not wrong that some of the modern borders of Ukraine are a Soviet creation, for example, but completely ignores the fact that it was already in the process of establishing itself as an independent country before the Bolsheviks (as the Ukrainian People's Republic).

Speaking more broadly, one needs to get into fairly ancient history to make sense of various territorial disputes between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and Poland, and how it all contributed to ethnogenesis of Ukrainians. In particular, look into Grand Duchy of Lithuania.