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Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by chrisco255 on Monday February 14, 2022 @12:58PM (#30335396)
No they haven't. They have consistently overshot on warming. Show me one model from one and two decades ago that underestimated warming.
Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by cosheaf on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:16PM (#30335721)
All of them. The science is clear on this. Anthropogenic global warming is real and is currently a major existential threat that is not being properly addressed because people are in denial about what's coming and ignoring what's already here.
Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by chrisco255 on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:37PM (#30336130)
No, they've overshot dramatically.

The only model coming close to being accurate was the INM-CM4 model, which predicted a mild 0.1C increase per decade.

All of these models have done a poor job of predicting cloud cover albedo and sensitivity. There is no good model for predicting cloud cover over decades of time and it turns out it's one of the most critical factors in the climate system.

Anyways, to read more about these issues, see:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.102...

Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by sparky_z on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:20PM (#30335811)
How can "the science" say that warming will be worse than all of the scientific models say it will be?
Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by cosheaf on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:32PM (#30336029)
The science is not saying anything like that. I am the one saying things will be worse because the models have consistently underestimated second order greenhouse effects like ocean acidification and the collapse of the transatlantic currents and general slowdown of other ocean currents along with their effects on global weather patterns.
Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by chrisco255 on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:43PM (#30336244)
And yet they haven't. The past two decades haven't been indicative of runaway warming with feedback loops, but just a paltry 0.1C/decade trend.

If what you say is true, you should be able to pull up a model published in 2002 or 2012 and analyze its predictions from the observations.

That's science. A model is only as good as its performance against reality, and the truth is, 98+% of the models in the IPCC analysis from one and two decades ago overshot in their predictions.

Re:Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years by cosheaf on Monday February 14, 2022 @01:49PM (#30336367)