Was editing my comment while you were commenting (removed service life, as software won’t detect dry rot or other defects undetectable from wheel speed measurements). Assuming tires wear evenly, you could still detect the change in rotation speed over time due to tread wear.

You can detect 3mm radius decrease? I would say no.

Remember that wheel slip depends on surface properties.

3mm is about a third of total tread depth, and 1% of the tire's radius. Why wouldn't this be detectable? ABS sensors tend to have 48-tooth tone rings and there's no reason why you couldn't vastly increase this number if you wanted.

Longitudinal tire slip is caused by thrust in excess of the tire's grip, which is a function of slip speed among many other things. Grip peaks with a mild amount of slip, but slip isn't the norm outside of racing. Mild acceleration produces zero slip.

Lateral slip angle is a different story.

The slip is only 0 when free rolling by definition of the rolling radius.

You also have the rolling radius depend on load (car mass) and tire pressure.

I don't say I know it is impossible, but it feels like there is way to much noise.

I think you can. Remember you have a lot of time to work with. The car already knows when wheels are slipping to discard that data. You just pick a time when you are going straight on a nice somewhat flat dry surface going a consistent speed and measure then, cars do that all the time even on curvy mountain roads you will find plenty of such stretches and you only need to measure every few hours.

It does if you have a GPS speed input. In the race car daq I use I can see speed differentials due to tire wear.

A typical 17" tire has a radius of 318 mm and 8 mm of tread. So a bald tire is 2.5% smaller than a new one.