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Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by tomohawk on Sunday January 30, 2022 @05:19PM (#30141774)
> ready on day 2

That's like some person in SV saying they had a great idea.

Who cares?

The level of execution in operation warp to get this past the FDA processes was enormous. The industrial mobilzation to create refrigeration units and transportation, and get all of the logistics alligned in a few months. That is the stuff of legend.

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by NicoJuicy on Sunday January 30, 2022 @05:54PM (#30142111)
And that seems to me as patting themselves on the back.

Every country in Europe did this exact thing without patting themselves on the back or calling it "Warp speed" ( eg. For Refrigerator units/logistics)

The biggest accomplishment/improvement to speed up things was doing simultaneous clinical trials, which wasn't even remotely related with Warp speed but was a emergency action ( = it existed as advice before COVID to be used if a pandemic would happen)

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by e4e78a06 on Sunday January 30, 2022 @06:03PM (#30142168)
The EU had a substantially delayed rollout of vaccines compared to the US [1]. You can see that the purple line (US) is about 2 months ahead of the yellow (EU). Especially in the early days of the rollout the EU was very behind.

[1]: https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2412

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by csdvrx on Sunday January 30, 2022 @06:49PM (#30142568)
Indeed, it may seem small, but if we calculate the area under the curve and the delay towards getting 1 then 2 doses coverage, I'm sure this will have saved a lot of lives.

Any way I look at it, OWS has been an inspiring success: it proves that regardless of political divisions or uncertainties, we as a species can achieve wonderful things.

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by morelisp on Sunday January 30, 2022 @06:33PM (#30142417)
> Especially in the early days of the rollout the EU was very behind.

On one hand I agree, but on the other hand looking back now after 13-14 months, did it matter? Was any public health outcome significantly improved by that lead? (From the qualitative reports I've read I might believe there was in the UK - but not prima facie US vs. EU.)

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by e4e78a06 on Sunday January 30, 2022 @07:05PM (#30142710)
That's a pretty hard analysis to make. You'd have to compare people that 1) wanted to get vaccinated and 2) _could_ have been vaccinated if they were in the US instead of Europe and 3) died from COVID during the 2 month delay and see how many lives were saved. My uninformed guess just eyeballing the historical death graphs and vaccine rollout is probably low 5 figures range.
Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by morelisp on Monday January 31, 2022 @07:20AM (#30147154)
I agree, analyzing it is probably outside the scope of any individual researcher. Nonetheless it feels like something you'd want to do before taking OWS as "a new model" for intervention! It's probably better than "control" (doing literally nothing) but was it better than, I don't know, instead subsidizing / organizing grocery delivery and other kinds of social support networks for two months? That's certainly less scientism-sexy and technocratic but if you're talking about maybe 20k deaths out of a million, it seems like we should be able to do much better. (At that low an impact, I might even believe the cost savings alone from the longer negotiations were justified - if I believed Germany would reallocate them to public health programs and not a new highway or gas pipeline or something.)
Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by NicoJuicy on Sunday January 30, 2022 @08:58PM (#30143596)
The EU didn't pay the highest prices to buy all available vaccines and requested higher accountability ( https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-s... )

They secured the lowest prices and have a higher vaccination rate and overtook the US by now.

But it's also comparing apples and peers. It should be more reasonable to compare it with the UK. Where the US was indeed also faster.

I think the rollout in Europe ( and others ) was actually delayed because of Operation Warp Speed. Buying all vaccines at premium prices.

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by e4e78a06 on Sunday January 30, 2022 @11:23PM (#30144465)
We're talking a $5 per vaccine difference, which is minuscule compared to the economic impact and lives saved. It was wrong of the EU to push so hard on price.

But regardless your own article claims production capacity in Europe was the problem (precisely the thing that OWS and the Defense Production Act rectified in the US):

> “Production was always going to be a problem,” said Schulthess. The industry had been pulling back from Europe for years — in part because of growing vaccine hesitancy. “It takes five years and a pile of cash to build a [vaccine factory] by the book,” said Schulthess.

And European infrastructure was unprepared for vaccine distribution (again from your own article):

> The Hague had bet so strongly on the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab being the first to be approved that it hadn’t finished preparing to transport mRNA vaccines, which need to be kept at temperatures far below freezing

And there were bureaucratic delays associated with getting other vaccine variants (same article):

> Countries can’t just follow the U.K.’s lead by unilaterally authorizing vaccines purchased by the EU — doses purchased by Brussels can only be released after they get the EMA’s signoff, according to the agreement. So even though Budapest tried to make a point by green-lighting the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, it won’t get any shots before the rest of the bloc.

Please read your own article as it names and shames all the reasons of the European delay, of which merely one is price.

> have a higher vaccination rate and overtook the US by now

Yes, but we're discussing the impact of OWS which would only change how fast the initial rollout was. Obviously now there are a lot of antivaxers in the US who will never get the vaccine but that's unrelated to OWS.

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by NicoJuicy on Monday January 31, 2022 @02:29AM (#30145457)
I did, but you don't know how the EU works.

Not only 5$ difference, but a higher accountability from pharma. That was almost all waved in the US as usual.

But you probably didn't notice how there were almost no issues with the western countries in the EU and the article talked about the issue with the eastern countries in the EU?

That's not a problem the EU can really solve for them.

A country was responsible for their rollout and procurement. The vaccine was bought together as an option and countries could decide to participate, that's the EU ( https://www.ft.com/content/c1575e05-70e5-4e5f-b58c-cde5c99ab... ) - all of them did.

Germany also publicly blamed the US for buying too much vaccines and sucking up all the production at a premium price in front of other countries. You didn't really read my previous point about that ( looked for the article, but it's hard to find it seems)

Let's be clear,

I'm from Belgium and I'm pretty sure that we could used some military law to force dips on vaccines we created ( Pfizer/Biontech) and could have done everything faster than the US if we wanted. But we didn't, since it's not fair, selfish and we wouldn't get away with it like the US :)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccine-ex... ( read the part of Belgium)

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by e4e78a06 on Monday January 31, 2022 @12:41PM (#30151052)
> But you probably didn't notice how there were almost no issues with the western countries in the EU and the article talked about the issue with the eastern countries in the EU?

Did we read the same article? It literally blames the Netherlands for having insufficient refrigeration infrastructure for mRNA vaccines.

> Germany also publicly blamed the US for buying too much vaccines and sucking up all the production at a premium price in front of other countries

Which as the article says, was politics to cover up for their own delays.

> I'm from Belgium and I'm pretty sure that we could used some military law to force dips on vaccines we created ( Pfizer/Biontech) and could have done everything faster than the US if we wanted. But we didn't, since it's not fair, selfish and we wouldn't get away with it like the US

That just seems like an excuse. The EU also failed to invest in sufficient production capacity by fronting capital to jump start production before the vaccines were approved. From your own FT link:

> But investments by the EU to help companies cover upfront costs appear to have been relatively modest compared with those agreed by the US. Mr Wojahn said the EU had pre-financed production capacity with roughly €2bn in the summer and early autumn. In contrast, Donald Trump’s administration in the US began funding vaccine producers through its Operation Warp Speed programme back in March. It has spent more than $12bn to date — more than a third of which was given to Boston-based biotech Moderna alone

Germany also blames the European Commission in your FT article:

> But German politicians, including Bavarian premier Markus Söder, who also leads one of Germany’s governing parties, the Christian Social Union, have said the blame sits with the EU. “There was probably too much bureaucracy at the European Commission . . . too few of the right vaccines were ordered and price debates went on for too long”, Mr Söder told German newspaper Bild am Sonntag.

And from your Washington Post article:

> Even as Brussels and European capitals cry foul over bearing the brunt of supply chain issues from manufacturers and point to continued exports, sluggish vaccination programs in many European countries mean millions of delivered doses haven’t been used. The E.U.’s most populous member state, Germany, has administered just over 8 million vaccine doses but still has a backlog of 4.3 million doses in storage, according to government figures.

Did you read your own articles or did you have an opinion you were looking to confirm coming into this conversation?

Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by pkaye on Sunday January 30, 2022 @11:28PM (#30144495)
Th EU spent more time negotiating a better deal. Also more promise was put upon the Astra Zeneca vaccine initially.
Re:Operation Warp Speed: A new model for industrial policy by Yoric on Monday January 31, 2022 @03:14AM (#30145704)
Indeed, the US pre-ordered vaccines without waiting for tests, while EU was more cautious. Turned out that the US was more right than the EU in that case.