Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by gota on Saturday January 22, 2022 @06:18PM
(#30041822)
The following paragraph is wrong, in that it is misleading and correlates things that have not happened at the same time.
> The case also underscores the fast-growing appetite for cryptocurrencies in Brazil, where years of economic and political crises have made digital currencies an attractive shield against depreciation of the Brazilian real and double-digit inflation.
Adoption of bitcoin in Brazil was highest from 2015 through 2017. It has not grown significantly in recent years hampered by the energy costs rising and killing mining operations. At the time inflation was not 2 digits. It was only 2 digits in 2021, because of the pandemic (mostly). The Real has also has only significantly depreciated since the pandemic, having kept a somewhat stable value of 0.25 USD for the previous 5 years.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by cinntaile on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:47PM
(#30041141)
12 years and counting, is that some sort of record for a ponzi scheme where people have been saying it's a ponzi scheme from the beginning? I wonder when they'll realize it might be something else.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by Barrin92 on Sunday January 23, 2022 @12:18AM
(#30043834)
nope. You might be interested in Gregor MacGregor who sold many people land to the non-existent country of Poyais for billions in today's dollars, and even when people started to die after arriving in the middle of nowhere the few who made it back to the UK defended him. And he even managed to pull that con off more than once.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by cinntaile on Sunday January 23, 2022 @02:02AM
(#30044236)
Someone managed to con people by selling them land that doesn't exist. I don't see the relevance? If you buy bitcoins they may be useless in the future. There is no promise whatsoever that they will be worth something in the future and that is the big difference. Nobody gets conned. During the past 12 years it has gone up and it has gone down, a ponzi doesn't tend to revive itself after it gets discovered and they're forbidden by law. Whichever way bitcoin goes in the future nobody knows. There are definitely ponzi schemes within the crypto sphere but bitcoin isn't one of them. BitConnect was such an example and so was OneCoin, there are probably more recent ones as well but it's not something I keep track of.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by Barrin92 on Sunday January 23, 2022 @06:35AM
(#30045426)
>There is no promise whatsoever that they will be worth something in the future and that is the big difference. Nobody gets conned
Of course there is, that's what the Brazilian guys in the article we're commenting on were arrested for. Schemes worth 5 billion in total that included false promises of delivering monthly returns of 10% on bitcoin 'investments'.
Pretty much the entire value of countless of coins, nfts or other largely imaginary financial products is a game of bigger fool. People paying tens of thousands for NFTs of pictures or tweets makes no more sense than that old scam of buying an acre of land on the moon or of an imaginary country.
And of course the other big similarity is the shared psychological reaction. Rather than people waking up to the fact that they're entangled in increasingly bizarre financial transactions, the rationalizations for the behavior become weirder and weirder.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by cinntaile on Sunday January 23, 2022 @10:39AM
(#30046934)
I replied to a statement claiming bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. Bitcoin doesn't have such a promise. Sure someone can come and claim this for dollars as well, but that doesn't make the dollar a ponzi scheme either.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by mrtksn on Saturday January 22, 2022 @03:30PM
(#30040527)
Wouldn't you agree that if enough people choose to stay in Bitcoin instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
The Bitcoin network does actually function as advertised and there's no technical reason for it not to be a decentralised network of value exchange.
I understand that at HN even considering blockchain technologies yields a strong pushback but at some point you need to admit that the crypto people are onto something. Bitcoin denies to die even after the rush of speculative investors and get rich quick folks dies off.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by ChuckNorris89 on Saturday January 22, 2022 @03:35PM
(#30040577)
>Wouldn't you agree that if enough people choose to stay in Bitcoin instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
Why would people give up the opportunity to cash out the winnings of investments/gambles? People do the same with some stocks.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by mrtksn on Saturday January 22, 2022 @03:42PM
(#30040650)
It's a cash out opportunity for some but for others it's a medium of exchange. There are also quite a lot of ideological people.
If you believe that Bitcoin has a bright future and even may become a global currency, it's a bad investment move to sell your bitcoins at any time. Sure, you can argue that you can sell high and later buy more for less but that's timing the market and no one can actually reliably do that and as a result if someone believes that BTC will be huge in the future will never sell. When the mission is accomplished, they will use it as money to purchase goods and services.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by disruptalot on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:18PM
(#30040918)
You make it sound like this is somehow a unique property Bitcoin. In truth, every asset and even medium of exchange can and has been manipulated for gain.
JP Morgan spoofed the precious metals market and got caught.
In the medium of exchange category, the forex market has been manipulated for decades.
You are more at risk of volatility and manipulation in crypto markets because they are immature. Bitcoin is still in the discovery stage.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by ChuckNorris89 on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:29PM
(#30041006)
>In truth, every asset and even medium of exchange can and has been manipulated for gain.
Well yeah, that was my point. That's why in many countries with rampant inflation they use USD or EUR, as mediums of exchange because they're currencies controlled by powerful economies and governments which have proven to be mostly stable throughout recent history, save for major disasters, therefore their currencies exert a large amount of trust and stability on the financial markets, vs BTC that fluctuates more extremely more quickly without any brakes from any government as the BTC you got yesterday for selling your PS4 on ebay could maybe now buy you a yacht or maybe not even a big mac.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by nradov on Saturday January 22, 2022 @05:56PM
(#30041649)
The "evidence" of forex market manipulation seems to consist primarily of sore losers complaining that their trading strategies should have been profitable in theory but lost money in practice. Sure if you're trading some obscure low volume currency pair then there can occasionally be some temporary funny business, but no one other than central banks has sufficient capital reserves to significantly manipulate the major reserve currencies.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by mrtksn on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:09PM
(#30040847)
Maybe. But maybe it offers some value that is not found in the classical systems and for many people that's good enough.
Also don't forget that if it happens that BTC replaces the government controlled currencies as some pundits claim, there won't be pump and dumps etc. No one pumps and dumps USD in the USA but they do it in other countries.
A quick example is Turkey where the USD gained against the Turkish lira a lot and lost over %30 value overnight but USD is still good.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by mrtksn on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:29PM
(#30041004)
Only small part of the worlds population lives in a western democracy(about %10). People around the globe(the %90) pump and dump all kind of currencies all the time, including USD. Don't forget that sudden value increase and decrease cuts both ways. BTC is just like USD for a lot of people, just easier to trade.
BTW I don't hold any crypto, I simply find it fascinating and I think there's some merit in its ideas and technologies.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by rzwitserloot on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:20PM
(#30040931)
> Wouldn't you agree that if enough people choose to stay in Bitcoin instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
Wouldn't you agree that if enough people keep their flower bulbs instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at a higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
Your statement boils down to: Yes, but.. what if... we don't TREAT it as a ponzi scheme? See! Now it isn't a ponzi scheme!
Yes. And IF only the moon was made of cheese, then the moon would be made of cheese.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by mrtksn on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:26PM
(#30040983)
> Wouldn't you agree that if enough people keep their flower bulbs instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at a higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
I agree, that's how we have gold as a value store. However flower bulbs are not durable like gold and can grow exponentially on supply through farming - no surprise we don't store value in flower bulbs today. Bitcoin doesn't suffer from these issues.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by ChuckNorris89 on Saturday January 22, 2022 @05:01PM
(#30041241)
>that's how we have gold as a value store.
Except for one, not anymore, and two, the value of gold doesn't only come from speculation like in BTC, but from supply and demand from real world applications of gold, like semiconductors, electronics, aerospace, automotive, medical, etc. since it's one of the best electrical conductors and heat reflecting materials we have.
Without gold, we'd be screwed royally, making the current supply chain disruptions seem like a walk in the park. Without BTC, we could fork 1000 other crypto-coins onto which people can speculate on and nothing would be lost.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by skybrian on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:00PM
(#30040766)
Yes, "ponzi scheme" is over-used, though it seems to apply to the schemes in Brazil.
Bitcoin is more like infrastructure that people can use to play pump-and-dump games. We've seen with meme stocks (and previously, penny stocks) that just about any financial asset can be used for these games. It doesn't need to be intentionally set up for that. It's structural in having a limited supply, a volatile price, and continuous trading. Just add hype, which serves as coordination among the players about which financial asset to use to play the game.
One difference is that a cryptocurrency's value can come primarily though not exclusively from its usefulness for playing pump-and-dump games. High fees and volatility deter most usage for payments, and there is no income stream other than new investors buying in.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by razemio on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:12PM
(#30040876)
I use it to prove that my legal / important documents aren't faked / altered and existed at a given time. Only Bitcoin (Blockchain Tech) can do that if I am not mistaken.
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by cookingrobot on Saturday January 22, 2022 @04:57PM
(#30041208)
Why don’t you put multiple versions of your important documents on the blockchain, and then later you can pick and choose which version you want to “prove” are real?
Re:Bitcoin pyramid schemes wreak havoc on Brazil's 'New Egypt'
by razemio on Sunday January 23, 2022 @04:09AM
(#30044737)
I do not put any document on the chain just a hash. I do only need proof that a certain version of the document existed at a certain time to proof that it wasn't altered after. Multiple revisions are ofc also possible. If you upload the same multiple times the first timestamp is enough, everything after can be ignored.
> The case also underscores the fast-growing appetite for cryptocurrencies in Brazil, where years of economic and political crises have made digital currencies an attractive shield against depreciation of the Brazilian real and double-digit inflation.
Adoption of bitcoin in Brazil was highest from 2015 through 2017. It has not grown significantly in recent years hampered by the energy costs rising and killing mining operations. At the time inflation was not 2 digits. It was only 2 digits in 2021, because of the pandemic (mostly). The Real has also has only significantly depreciated since the pandemic, having kept a somewhat stable value of 0.25 USD for the previous 5 years.
Financial expert Lyn Alden explains what a Ponzi scheme actually is and why bitcoin isn’t: https://www.lynalden.com/bitcoin-ponzi-scheme/
It’s turtles all the way down.
15 years for number 2.
Madoff was first investigated in 1992 and shut down in 2008 for 16 years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal
Madoff was paying cashflows to his clients. Bitcoin pays nobody.
What are the longest running pyramid schemes? Gold sees to be running for nearly 5000 years, seems like plenty of runway here.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160127-the-conman-who-p...
Of course there is, that's what the Brazilian guys in the article we're commenting on were arrested for. Schemes worth 5 billion in total that included false promises of delivering monthly returns of 10% on bitcoin 'investments'.
Pretty much the entire value of countless of coins, nfts or other largely imaginary financial products is a game of bigger fool. People paying tens of thousands for NFTs of pictures or tweets makes no more sense than that old scam of buying an acre of land on the moon or of an imaginary country.
And of course the other big similarity is the shared psychological reaction. Rather than people waking up to the fact that they're entangled in increasingly bizarre financial transactions, the rationalizations for the behavior become weirder and weirder.
The Bitcoin network does actually function as advertised and there's no technical reason for it not to be a decentralised network of value exchange.
I understand that at HN even considering blockchain technologies yields a strong pushback but at some point you need to admit that the crypto people are onto something. Bitcoin denies to die even after the rush of speculative investors and get rich quick folks dies off.
Why would people give up the opportunity to cash out the winnings of investments/gambles? People do the same with some stocks.
If you believe that Bitcoin has a bright future and even may become a global currency, it's a bad investment move to sell your bitcoins at any time. Sure, you can argue that you can sell high and later buy more for less but that's timing the market and no one can actually reliably do that and as a result if someone believes that BTC will be huge in the future will never sell. When the mission is accomplished, they will use it as money to purchase goods and services.
Here's a thought, if your medium of exchange is someone else's cash-out, pump-and-dump opportunity, then maybe it's not a good medium of exchange.
JP Morgan spoofed the precious metals market and got caught.
In the medium of exchange category, the forex market has been manipulated for decades.
You are more at risk of volatility and manipulation in crypto markets because they are immature. Bitcoin is still in the discovery stage.
Well yeah, that was my point. That's why in many countries with rampant inflation they use USD or EUR, as mediums of exchange because they're currencies controlled by powerful economies and governments which have proven to be mostly stable throughout recent history, save for major disasters, therefore their currencies exert a large amount of trust and stability on the financial markets, vs BTC that fluctuates more extremely more quickly without any brakes from any government as the BTC you got yesterday for selling your PS4 on ebay could maybe now buy you a yacht or maybe not even a big mac.
Also don't forget that if it happens that BTC replaces the government controlled currencies as some pundits claim, there won't be pump and dumps etc. No one pumps and dumps USD in the USA but they do it in other countries.
A quick example is Turkey where the USD gained against the Turkish lira a lot and lost over %30 value overnight but USD is still good.
Your comment serves to make a point for strong and stable fiat like USD, not for Bitcoin which also just lost around 40% of its value in a month.
BTW I don't hold any crypto, I simply find it fascinating and I think there's some merit in its ideas and technologies.
Wouldn't you agree that if enough people keep their flower bulbs instead of simply buying for cheap and selling at a higher price, the structure will stop resembling a ponzi scheme?
Your statement boils down to: Yes, but.. what if... we don't TREAT it as a ponzi scheme? See! Now it isn't a ponzi scheme!
Yes. And IF only the moon was made of cheese, then the moon would be made of cheese.
I agree, that's how we have gold as a value store. However flower bulbs are not durable like gold and can grow exponentially on supply through farming - no surprise we don't store value in flower bulbs today. Bitcoin doesn't suffer from these issues.
Except for one, not anymore, and two, the value of gold doesn't only come from speculation like in BTC, but from supply and demand from real world applications of gold, like semiconductors, electronics, aerospace, automotive, medical, etc. since it's one of the best electrical conductors and heat reflecting materials we have.
Without gold, we'd be screwed royally, making the current supply chain disruptions seem like a walk in the park. Without BTC, we could fork 1000 other crypto-coins onto which people can speculate on and nothing would be lost.
However, there are new cryptos coming online every week it seems. Almost like growing different colored tulips.
Bitcoin is more like infrastructure that people can use to play pump-and-dump games. We've seen with meme stocks (and previously, penny stocks) that just about any financial asset can be used for these games. It doesn't need to be intentionally set up for that. It's structural in having a limited supply, a volatile price, and continuous trading. Just add hype, which serves as coordination among the players about which financial asset to use to play the game.
One difference is that a cryptocurrency's value can come primarily though not exclusively from its usefulness for playing pump-and-dump games. High fees and volatility deter most usage for payments, and there is no income stream other than new investors buying in.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3105306/
2. It's not a value, it's a numerical record.
3. What do you mean by "as advertised"? It's "advertised" that bitcoin can solve world's hunger...
4. There are numerous technical reasons not to use it
It's all a scam.