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A comment on Oh, 2022. Parent comment

Re:Oh, 2022 by Buttons840 on Sunday January 09, 2022 @08:03PM (#29869297)
> If it's "5-10 years per collision," and each new one resets the 5-10 years timeframe

It's not.

The concern is that unwanted collisions will become common enough that satellites break down or are completely destroyed within months. There will never be enough debris that we can't fly through LEO.

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Re:Oh, 2022 by Sebb767 on Sunday January 09, 2022 @09:09PM (#29869751)
> There will never be enough debris that we can't fly through LEO.

Flying through and flying through safely are very different things. With tens of thousands of objects in and below LEO and (presumably) increasing flights to orbit, it's only a matter of time until a rocket gets taken down. It doesn't require a particularly large piece for an involuntary update to your deorbiting plans.

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Re:Oh, 2022 by klyrs on Sunday January 09, 2022 @08:11PM (#29869360)
Therein lies the birthday paradox: the frequency of collisions among n bodies grows quadratically; but the probability of a one-time passerby being involved in those collisions only grows linearly.
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