Almost all Covid related predictions have been incorrect, and the ones that seem correct, are only so at the surface level and require mental gymnastics. The pathology of the disease simply isn't well understood at this point, and the new mutations make it a moving target. I don't personally like Fauci, but he is a victim of being conscripted as the Chief Covid Prognosticator by the media. It's a fundamental misunderstanding of science to believe a person can give guarantees on an emerging pathogen like that.

It's amazing how we can rewrite history so fast. The number of times I see on Twitter people from different countries saying the same things, first it was "nobody ever said this vaccine will be 90% efficient against getting covid", then "nobody ever said the vaccine reduce transmission", and now it's "the vaccines have always be only to reduce ICU stays".

(I am vaccinated btw)

It's more like people are realizing what the original claims from Nov 2020 were instead of blindly trusting politicians. Pfizer and Moderna only checked for symptomatic covid in those trials and never made claims about infection/transmission. That was all assumptions people were making over 2021.

back in early 2021 I remember the media, especially the "MSM," warning that the vaccines weren't guaranteed to prevent transmission, and commentators arguing that the media were scaremongering and we should be secure in feeling the vaccines do prevent all infection and transmission. E.g.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/23/opinion/covid-vaccines-tr... "Many scientists are reluctant to say with certainty that the vaccines prevent transmission of the virus from one person to another. [. . .] There should be more data within the next couple of months. Until then, precautionary measures like masking and distancing in the presence of unvaccinated people will remain important."

FWIW, it seems like those commentators who were actually right until Delta emerged. Looking at graph of Covid cases in the USA for example we were on track to low case levels until July, then the Delta variant began to break through in vaccinated individuals and the epidemic grew in size again.

> Looking at graph of Covid cases in the USA for example we were on track to low case levels until July

Gotta compare 2021 to the the curves from 2020 though: It's the same shape with different magnitude. Looks more like that drop in the spring and early summer was because it's seasonal than anything else, which we misattributed to the vaccines.

To be fair, nowhere in the US (that I'm aware of) is close to the % population vaccinated numbers necessary for a semblance herd immunity. According to the CDC, only 62% of the US is fully vaccinated, with only 35% of those also having had a booster.

Different variants mean different efficacy for vaccines, particularly regarding infection. The existing vaccines could very well have led to "signs of herd immunity" had the variants not taken hold.

Yah, ok, I blew it. Vaccinations will trend towards immunity.