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Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by wesleywt on Monday January 03, 2022 @12:51AM (#29777772)
Comments like these are frustrating. This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist. I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy that this was deliberate action. No, this pandemic was caused by deliberate inaction.
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by pizza234 on Monday January 03, 2022 @06:13AM (#29779592)
> I don't understand why the public wants to believe in the fantasy that this was deliberate action

This is gross oversimplification. The fact that some scientists may know doesn't imply that the only possibility is deliberate action.

Since there have been a lot of money poured on Coronaviruses research in the last decade, it's reasonable that, (important!) even not assuming a lab leak (/important!), scientists working on it, don't want to disclose it.

Even those who didn't work on it are disincentived to talk about it, as their reputation is on the line (in particular, because of the misguided opinion that lab leak equals bioengineerd virus). A few co-subscribers of the Lancet letter changed their mind on the topic. It doesn't surprise me that they did it only recently - precisely because their position is now less endangered.

> This pandemic was predicted for many years by scientist

It's hard to extract any value from this, especially without a very serious analysis, because at any point in time, there will be people predicting that events of any kind will happen.

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by halpert on Monday January 03, 2022 @12:54AM (#29777791)
How can you be so sure. The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus. Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/27/briefing/lab-leak-theory-...

What do you know that the U.S. president and U.S. intelligence doesn't?

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by stirfish on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:13AM (#29777880)
I think USA intelligence only decided that it isn't a bioweapon

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-coron...

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by halpert on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:52AM (#29778086)
I didn't say it was a bioweapon, just that it very well could have originated in a lab. From your article:

> The two main hypotheses — that the virus jumped from animals to humans in a natural process, or that it escaped from a research laboratory in China — remain on the table, ODNI said. Both theories are plausible, the agencies concluded.

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by stirfish on Monday January 03, 2022 @08:34AM (#29780607)
I know, I was just providing some context. You sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole :)
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by jcranmer on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:28AM (#29777975)
> The first outbreak was literally a few feet from a lab studying this exact virus.

Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.)

> Biden called for U.S. intelligence to figure out if the original virus came from a lab

Because a government has never, ever called for an investigation or an action to be taken because of political pressure despite its internal knowledge bases saying there is no need to investigate it.

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by pizza234 on Monday January 03, 2022 @06:25AM (#29779661)
> Fact check: false. The early cases in Wuhan almost all cluster near the wet market, not the virology lab, which is on the outskirts of town on the other side of the river some ~30km from the market. (And to the extent they don't cluster near that market, they do favor quite strongly the market's side of the river, not the virology lab's side of the river.)

To be considered:

> the Wuhan CDC ‘hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification’. Moreover, the Xiaos described how a lead researcher at this laboratory who collected bats had featured in articles and at least one broadcast video revealing that ‘he was once attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him.’ Given that ‘surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing’, relatively close to the Huanan seafood market where clusters of Covid-19 cases had been detected, it was reasonable to ask whether an accident had occurred, the two scientists argued.

If a case like this was hypothetically true, it would sit on a line between zoonotic origin and lab leak. Remember that lab leak doesn't imply bioengineering.

> the virology lab, which is [...] some ~30km from the market.

Independently of lab leak or not, this is wrong. You can check on google maps that by car (and even more in a straight line), is less than 15 km.

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by adolph on Monday January 03, 2022 @02:09AM (#29778173)
The Wuchang campus is closer, 17k away.

Crucially, however, the now famous “earliest” COVID-19 case (1), a 41-year-old male accountant, who lived 30 km south of Huanan Market and had no connection to it—illness onset reported as 8 December—may have become ill with COVID-19 considerably later. . . . This suggests that he may have been infected through community transmission after the virus had begun spreading from Huanan Market.

[C]onclusive evidence of a Huanan Market origin from infected wildlife may nonetheless be obtainable through analysis of spatial patterns of early cases and from additional genomic data, including SARS-CoV-2–positive samples from Huanan Market, as well as through integration of additional epidemiologic data. Preventing future pandemics depends on this effort.

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm4454

Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by jcranmer on Monday January 03, 2022 @02:24AM (#29778249)
The Wuchang campus may be closer, but the image of the case clusters still shows strong clustering near the markets and not particularly near either campus.
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by tptacek on Monday January 03, 2022 @03:45PM (#29786603)
That's the distance from the Mission to SFO, or from the Freedom Tower all the way across Manhattan to Harlem. Seems like a hike.
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by todd3834 on Monday January 03, 2022 @12:54AM (#29777790)
If it came from a lab then it was caused by overaction. If it came from the wild then you are right. That’s the reason people want to know
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by petre on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:10AM (#29777870)
It could have come from guano miners just as easily, but bringing it to a 50M population center was a recipe for disaster. Ebola and AIDS did not come from a lab but from tampering with wild animals.
Re:Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron var... by jessaustin on Monday January 03, 2022 @01:03AM (#29777835)
You have oversimplified. It isn't necessary to believe that any researcher is capable of designing a sophisticated new virus. (Although, since this is all hooked to computers, just wait a decade...) It's just plausible that some researchers could be sloppy enough with inherently dangerous research to cause serious harm. Further, many have observed how those researchers have been at least partially funded by the same well-endowed funding entities that also fund major portions of most other research in virology.

[EDIT:] But you're right about the "deliberate inaction". The obvious way to fight pandemics (as opposed to less contagious health threats) is to make sure everyone in society has access to relevant health care and other vital resources. This came naturally to many societies that earned much lower covid death rates than USA earned.